Nogger's Blog

24/05/12 -- Jul 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.76, up 13 1/2 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.76 1/4, up 18 1/2 cents; Jul 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD410.80, up USD5.00; Jul 12 Soybean Oil closed at 49.42, up 51 points. Export sales of 953,700 MT for soybeans were marginally below expectations of 1.0-1.25 MMT, but heavily weighted in favour of old crop once again at 800,100 MT - keeping nearby supplies very tight. China bought more than half of the old crop (436,800 MT) and most of the new crop (118,000 MT). Even so, new crop sales are also at an all time high for this time of year showing that demand is very robust. The Argentine crop was cut by 1.1 MMT to 39.9 MMT by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange today, 2.6 MMT lower than the USDA's current estimate and 9.1 MMT, or 19%, down on last year. Funds bought an estimated 6,000 soybean contracts on the day.

Corn: Jul 12 Corn closed at USD5.78 1/2, down 25 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.15, down 8 cents. This was the lowest close for a front month since late 2010. Funds selling, estimated at around 17,000 contracts on the day, put corn under pressure throughout the session. Weekly export sales were disappointing at 482,000 MT, less than half of what was anticipated (1.0-1.3 MMT) although China was a featured buyer of both it was largely on the back of switched sales from unknown. The International Grains Council raised their 2012/13 global corn production estimate by 13 MMT from last month to 913 MMT, a 5.4% increase on last year and an all time record high. Corn ending stocks are also raised by 6 MMT to 141 MMT. That added to the bearish tone even though both totals are well below the USDA's initial estimates for the coming season. The bulls have been trying to get a weather market going in the US this past week or so citing heat and dryness in some Midwest states, latest forecasts have taken on a cooler, wetter look in the 6-10 day timeframe.

Wheat: Jul 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.63, down 2 1/2 cents; Jul 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.87, up 1/2 cent; Jul 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.75 1/4, unchanged. Weekly export sales for wheat were a combined 827,000 MT of almost all new crop, well above expectations for sales of 350-550,000 MT. Accumulated sales for the new crop marketing year are now in excess of 3.3 MT. The IGC have cut their estimate for world 2012/13 wheat production by 5 MMT to 671 MMT, and lowered their projected ending stocks for next season by a hefty 15 MMT to 191 MMT. The Kansas wheat tour earlier this month concluded with an estimated record 49.1 bu/acre yield State-wide. Early yields on what has been cut so far are ranging 43 to 57 bu/acre. It would seem likely that these earlier maturing crops will have been less badly effected by the recent high temperatures and lack of moisture that has seen good/excellent crop conditions in the State slump from 60% to 43% in a fortnight. Yields may drop as harvesting progresses. Funds were said to have been around even on the day as neither a featured buyer nor a seller.