Nogger's Blog

25/05/12 -- Soybeans: Jul 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.82, up 6 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD12.89 1/4, up 13 cents; Jul 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD409.30, down USD1.50; Jul 12 Soybean Oil closed at 50.12, up 70 points. On the week as a whole Jul 12 beans were down 23 cents and Nov 12 up 1 1/4 cents. Jul 12 meal was USD8.60 lower and Jul 12 oil down 20 pips. The commitment of traders report shows funds decreasing their net long on soybeans by around 16,000 contracts as of Tuesday night. For nearby beans today was maybe a little bit of consolidation heading into a three day weekend with US markets shut on Monday for the Memorial Day Holiday. Weekend weather developments will maybe dictate market direction when trading resumes Monday night. "Thunderstorms are expected Friday night along a warm front stretching horizontally across the grain belt from Nebraska to northern Ohio. This front will be the focus of showers Saturday and Sunday, as it lifts northward into South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan," say Martell Crop Projections.

Corn: Jul 12 Corn closed at USD5.78 1/2, unchanged; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.21 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents. On the week as a whole Jul 12 corn fell a hefty 57 cents and Dec 12 a more modest 15 1/2 cents. This was the lowest close for Jul 12 on the weekly chart since late 2010. Funds were said to have bought around 4,000 contracts on the day heading into the long weekend, but that would still see them as a net seller of around 30,000 on the week if daily estimates are correct. Rumours that China has been cancelling US corn purchases and switching to South America are unconfirmed. It is note though that Brazilian FOB prices are around USD20/tonne cheaper than US values at the moment. The record fast pace of US corn plantings this year has the market focusing on the weather earlier than usual. Monday's usual crop progress report from the USDA is delayed until Tuesday next week. As of last Sunday night planting was 96% complete, emergence at 76% and good/excellent crop conditions at 77%.

Wheat: Jul 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.80, up 17 cents; Jul 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.00, up 13 cents; Jul 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.86 1/4, up 11 cents. At the end of a choppy week Chicago wheat is 15 1/4 cents lower overall, with Kansas down 5 cents and Minneapolis down 5 3/4 cents. Heat and dryness in Russia and the US Great Plains is seen supporting the market. The commitment of traders report shows funds cutting their net short position in Chicago wheat by 57,000 contracts in the week through to Tuesday night. The US wheat harvest in Kansas is underway, with mixed reports filtering through with regards to yields. Many expect yields to tail off as the harvest progresses as recent adverse weather conditions are likely to have taken a heavier toll amongst the more immature wheats around the state. Good/excellent crop conditions in the State have slumped from 60% to 43% in the past fortnight. Revised crop conditions will be out on Tuesday.