Nogger's Blog

07/05/12 -- Soybeans: May 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.63 1/2, down 11 1/2 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.53 1/2, down 13 1/4 cents; May 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD425.20, down USD6.90; May 12 Soybean Oil closed at 53.21, down 9 points. Having annouced sales of mostly new crop soybeans to China/unknown every day last week, the USDA began the week reporting 110,000 MT of old crop soybeans to unknown today. Even so, beans gave in to a broad-based sell-off in commodities following the weekend election results in Europe. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange cut their Argentine soybean production estimate to 41 MMT, more than 8 MMT down on last year. The USDA, who currently have Argentine production pegged at 45 MMT, will issue revised supply & demand estimates on Thursday. Funds, who were said to have been net sellers of 6,000 soybean contracts on the day, may continue to liquidate their length ahead of that report. The USDA reported soybean planting at 24% complete after the close, compared to 11% normally.

Corn: May 12 Corn closed at USD6.65, up 2 3/4 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.24 3/4, up 1/2 cent. Corn just about shrugged off outside market influences. The USDA announced 240,000 MT of optional origin new crop corn sold to Mexico and a further 116,000 MT to South Korea. Funds were said to have been net sellers of around 2,000 contracts on the day. After the close the USDA announced that US spring corn planting progress was 71% complete, versus trade expectations for 62-67% done, and well ahead of the five year average of 47%. This is surprising given that widespread Midwest rains last week were thought to have stalled sowings somewhat. Emergence for the early planted crop is running at 32% compared with 13% normally. Ideas are that La Nina has given way to what may prove to be an El Nino weather pattern, which would typically bring cool and wet conditions for the Midwest this summer, could bring record yields when coupled with these early plantings and thus a longer growing season.

Wheat: May 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.06 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents; May 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.19 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents; May 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.35 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents. StatsCanada announced Mar 31 wheat stocks of 14.5 MMT, slightly below expectations and 1.3 MMT less than last year. The USDA will release their first 2012/13 production estimates on Thursday. US wheat output is expected to be around 10% higher with an average trade estimate of 2.196 billion bushels (59.8 MMT) versus 1.999 billion (54.4 MMT) last year. After the close the USDA pegged spring wheat planting well advanced at 84% done versus 49% normally, emergence is also well ahead of the five year average of 17% at 47%. Winter wheat rated good/excellent fell slightly from 64% to 63%, but that is well ahead of this time last year when only 33% of the crop was rated in the top two categories. In Washington 90% of the crop is now rated good/excellent. Hot and dry conditions in parts of Ukraine and Russia are being flagged up as potential problem areas for wheat.