Chicago Closing Comments

21/05/12 -- Jul 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.12 1/2, up 7 1/2 cents, Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.06 1/4, up 18 1/4 cents; Jul 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD416.50, down USD1.40; Jul 12 Soybean Oil closed at 50.92, up 60 points. It's early days yet, but the trade is already attempting to get a weather market going for newly planted soybeans. The outlook for this week is warm and dry. That should enable US farmers to more or less wrap up planting at what would be a very early date, but instead the newswires are full of the need to add "risk premium". The USDA report that 76% of the 2012 crop is now in the ground versus 46% a week ago and 42% normally at this time. The crop is well forward at 35% emerged compared to the five year average of 13%. Weekly export inspections were uninspiring at 12.68 million bushels versus 20.54 million last week.

Corn: Jul 12 Corn closed at USD6.33, down 2 1/2 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.40 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents. Export inspections released were a modest 23.26 million bushels versus 27.63 million last week and 36.07 million last year. They need to be 35.2 million to stay on track with USDA projections for the current 2011/12 season. Midwest warmth and dryness is perceived as an early threat to new crop corn. The USDA said that corn planting had advanced to 96% complete versus 87% last week and 81% normally. Emergence is 76% against 48% on average at this time. In addition the USDA gave us the first crop condition ratings of the year, pegging 77% of the crop as good/excellent.

Wheat: Jul 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.04, up 8 3/4 cents; Jul 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.15, up 10 cents; Jul 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.96 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents. Funds were said to have been featured buyers of around 8,000 Chicago contracts on the day. Export inspections were 24.89 million bushels versus 28 million last week and 31.2 million a year ago. The USDA announced the sale of 100,000 MT of new crop HRW wheat to Iraq. Winter wheat crop conditions fell two percentage points to 58% good/excellent, in line with expectations. Of concern though was the Kansas crop declining sharply for the second week running to 43% good/excellent. Two weeks ago that figure was 60%. Spring wheat planting is said to be finished.