Nogger's Blog

26/06/12 -- Soybeans: Jul 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.70 1/2, down 12 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.13 1/4, down 12 1/4 cents; Jul 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD427.20, down USD5.60; Jul 12 Soybean Oil closed at 50.88, down 39 points. Funds were said to have sold an estimated 7,000 soybean contracts on the day in profit-taking and light liquidation ahead of Friday's upcoming USDA reports. The trade is expecting them to increase their US soybean area by around 1.5 million acres from their March estimate. June 1st stocks are expected to come in at around 635-640 million bushels, slightly higher than the 619 million twelve months ago. A variety of private analysts are pegging soybean yields this year in the 41-42 bu/acre region versus the USDA's 43.9 bu/acre.

Corn: Jul 12 Corn closed at USD6.46, up 15 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD6.24, up 30 cents. There was good follow through from yesterday's limit up move with funds buying an estimated 31,000 contracts on the day, taking their net purchases to over 50,000 lots in the past two days. Private forecasts for US corn yields this year currently line up around 155-157 bu/acre versus the USDA's 166 bu/acre estimate. The corn planted area is seen only increasing marginally from the USDA's 95.9 million acres estimated in March. June 1st stocks are pegged at 3.182 billion bushels versus 3.670 billion in 2011. Argentina’s Ag Minister said that in a trade visit there China’s Premier Wen said that they are interested in buying more corn from Argentina. The Chinese recently announced that they were adjusting their quarantine regulations in a precursor to importing more corn from South America.

Wheat: Jul 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.29, up 4 3/4 cents; Jul 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.35 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents; Jul 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.53, down 27 cents. Funds were said to have bought a net 7,000 Chicago wheat contracts on the day in short-covering encouraged by spillover support from resurgent corn. On Friday the USDA is seen placing the US all wheat planted area at 56.85 million acres, almost a million up on their March estimate. June 1st stocks are pegged at 726 million versus 862 million a year ago. Stats Canada are out tomorrow with their planting estimates. The Canadian all wheat area is forecast at 23.9 million acres, an 11% increase on last year's washed-out effort. Flooding is an issue again this year, although not as bad as it was twelve months ago. India is flexing its muscles in the export market, reportedly selling 200,000 MT of wheat to Middle East buyers at heavily discounted prices, with at least another 800,000 MT up for sale. It's domestic stocks are huge, storage of which is a serious issue.