Nogger's Blog

31/05/12 -- Soybeans: Jul 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.40, down 33 1/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans were at USD12.70 1/4, down 22 3/4 cents; Jul 12 Soybean Meal ended at USD394.50, down USD15.40; Jul 12 Soybean Oil closed at 49.20, down 49 points. Jul 12 beans finished May USD1.65 1/2, or 11%, lower than they began the month, with meal down USD41.00 and oil losing 585 points. Funds sold an estimated 8,000 soybean contracts on the day, much of that was likely to be in the nearby July as they begin to roll over a hefty front month long position into the deferred months. Weak crude oil, which has also suffered a terrible month during which NYMEX has fallen almost 18% was also a contributing factor. A cooler, wetter outlook across the next few days was also seen as negative, although after the weekend things turn warmer and drier again, according to the latest forecasts. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are 450-700 TMT versus 953,700 MT last week.

Corn: Jul 12 Corn closed at USD5.55 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents; Dec 12 Corn ended at $5.22, up 1 1/2 cents. Funds were said to have sold 8,000 contracts on the day with Jul 12 closing at a new 17-month low for a front month. For the month of May it's down 79 cents, or 12.5%. Increased competition from South America, where FOB values have been running around USD20/tonne lower than US levels have been suppressing recent export activity. China appears to have gone cold on US imports. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 450-650 TMT versus 482,100 MT last week. US weather is seen a little less threatening across the next 2-3 days. Weekend rainfall totals will be scrutinised come Monday morning, and it would be no surprise at all to see new month, new money pushing things higher again on the weather once we get into the middle of next week.

Wheat: Jul 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.43 3/4, down 10 cents; Jul 12 KCBT Wheat ended at USD6.68 3/4, down 10 1/4 cents; Jul 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.52 3/4, down 11 1/4 cents. Jul 12 Chicago wheat was 10 3/4 cents lower on the month. Funds were said to have been net sellers of around 4,000 Chicago contracts on the day. Recent rains in Russia, and with more expected over the next few days combined with much cooler temperatures, has eased some production concerns there. Rain in Kansas may disrupt harvesting, but should be of benefit to slower maturing crops in the north of the state. Europe's wheat crop could easily come in better than the the USDA suggest, with the EU Commission this week forecasting a crop of 134.6 MMT, 2 MMT down on last year but 2.6 MMT above the USDA's recent forecast. Meanwhile exports in Europe are down by almost a third despite the weak euro. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 350-500 TMT versus 827,100 MT last week.