Nogger's Blog

20/06/12 -- Soybeans: Jul 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.46 1/2, up 12 3/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.95 1/2, up 11 cents; Jul 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD427.40, down USD0.50; Jul 12 Soybean Oil closed at 50.81, up 37 points. Funds were said to have been net buyers of around 6,000 soybean contracts on the day on a continued hot and dry outlook for the Midwest. There is still time for the weather to co-operate and turn in a very respectable yield if heavy rain coincides with the key pod filling period. "This influential stage occurs over 30-40 day period in August and early September. Even short standing soybeans, stunted by drought, may load up with pods and make a productive yield, when rains are abundant," say Martell Crop Projections. Estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for soybeans are 700-950 TMT.

Corn: Jul 12 Corn closed at USD6.11 3/4, down 3/4 cent; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.66 1/2, up 3 cents. Funds were said to have been net buyers of around 3,000 corn contracts on the day. Hot and dry is the forecast for the Midwest and also across the Northern Chinese Plains the next 5-7 days. With each day that passes the USDA's prediction of a record 166bpa US corn yield this year looks increasingly unlikely. Next Friday they release their June planting estimates. It is entirely possible that they could find an extra million acres or so of corn to add to their current prediction of 95.9 million, which in itself is the highest since 1937. Informa recently raised their corn planting estimate for the 2012 US harvest to 96.8 million acres which is 900,000 more than the USDA said in March. That way they could cut projected yields back in July without harming production too much. Weekly export sales for tomorrow are expected to be 450,000-650,000MT.

Wheat: Jul 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.64, up 14 1/2 cents; Jul 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.86 1/2, up 16 1/2 cents; Jul 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.44 1/4, up 45 3/4 cents. Funds were said to have bought around 4,000 Chicago wheat contracts on the day. The nearby Minneapolis contract spiked sharply higher on reports heavy rains (it obviously isn't bone dry everywhere!) causing flooding in Duluth, Minnesota, a spring wheat futures delivery terminal. That may have encouraged shorts who were intending on making delivery against their sales to rethink their strategy. Wheat production and export estimates for Russia keep falling. The combines are expected to be rolling there around 10 days from now. Private estimates peg Russian wheat exports falling to around 12-14 MMT in 2012/13, compared to 21 MMT this year. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 300,000-500,000MT.