Nogger's Blog

15/06/12 -- Soybeans: Jul 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.76, down 10 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD13.14, up 5 1/4 cents; Jul 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD410.10, down USD6.40; Jul 12 Soybean Oil closed at 48.44, up 44 points. For the week Jul 12 beans were 50 1/4 cents lower, with Nov 12 down 18 1/2 cents, Jul 12 meal lost USD19.70 and Jul 12 oil shed 102 points. For the latter this was the lowest close on the weekly chart since October 2010. Funds were said to have sold 3,000 soybean contracts on the day in risk-off mode ahead of the weekend elections in Greece. USDA announced the sale of 120 TMT old crop US beans sold to unknown, 262 TMT of new crop sold to China and the cancellation of 147 TMT of old crop beans sold to China. Informa Economics estimated 2012 US soybean plantings at 76 million acres, more than 2 million more than the USDA's March planting intentions number. Heavy and much needed rain is in the forecast for the northern corn belt this weekend.

Corn: Jul 12 Corn closed at USD5.79 1/2, down 22 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD5.06, down 10 cents. For the week Jul 12 corn fell 18 1/2 cents and Dec 12 lost 38 cents. New crop Dec 12 came within a cent of closing at it's lowest levels on the weekly chart since 2010. Informa also raised their corn planting estimate for the 2012 US harvest to 96.8 million acres which is 900,000 more than the post-war record area that the USDA estimated in March. Where are all these extra acres coming from? Well, excessive flooding in some states last year saw large areas go unsown with growers instead claiming on their "prevent plant" insurance. This has not been the case this season. In addition high prices have brought more acres out of the CRP program, which is effectively what we in Europe would call set-aside. The early wheat harvest will also see some increased instances of double cropping this year. Funds were said to have been net sellers of around 10,000 corn contracts on the day, taking some money off the table ahead of the weekend Greek elections and forecast rains in northern states.

Wheat: Jul 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.09 1/2, down 14 cents; Jul 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.30, down 16 cents; Jul 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.87 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents. For the week Chicago wheat was 20 3/4 cents lower, Kansas down 26 cents and Minneapolis up 18 1/4 cents. Informa pegged the US spring wheat area at 13.476 million acres, 1.5 million more than the USDA said in March. The forecast weekend rains should further aid spring wheat production potential. The crop is already in great shape at 75% good/excellent. Informa projects the durum wheat area at 2.425 million acres compared with the USDA's 2.223 million. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange say that Argentine farmers will plant only 3.8 million hectares of wheat for the 2012/13 harvest, a 17% reduction on last year due to farmer dissatisfaction with government intervention in the grain markets. Plantings are said to be around 25% complete. China's CNGOIC cut its 2012 wheat production estimate by 2.3 MMT to 118 MMT - a crop broadly similar in size to last year.