Nogger's Blog

28/06/12 -- Soybeans: Jul 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.66, down 5 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.03 1/2, down 8 1/2 cents; Jul 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD426.60, down USD1.40; Jul 12 Soybean Oil closed at 50.92, down 44 points. Funds were said to have been net sellers of around 6,000 soybean contracts on the day. Who knows what tomorrow's USDA reports will bring? The trade is expecting a significant increase in soybean plantings from the 73.9 million acres reported in March. Given recent US weather events and the likely reduction to yields a sharp increase in planted area is certainly needed. Demand for US soybeans remains strong with the Chinese Ministry today forecasting their imports at 6.79 MMT, up 58% from last June, according to my records. The USDA reported weekly export sales of 793,100 MT, above expectations of 500-700 TMT, and in addition the sale of 110,000 MT to "unknown" for 2012/13 delivery.

Corn: Jul 12 Corn closed at USD6.52, up 2 1/2 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD6.32 1/4, down 3/4 cent. Corn closed well off early session highs as US weather forecasts put in more rain and on book-squaring ahead of tomorrow's USDA reports. The USDA’s corn quarterly stocks report has surprised the trade in 8 out of the last 9 quarters, I read. Funds sold an estimated 5,000 corn contracts on the day. Weekly export sales were a disappointment again at 292,800 MT versus the 300-500 TMT expected. There is more rain in the 5 day forecast but longer range forecasts call for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for the major crop producing states. Yield estimates from private analysts for the US corn harvest this year are now centred around the 155 bu/acre mark, with several warning of a rapid decline to 150 bpa or less if things don't improve quickly.

Wheat: Jul 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.26, down 6 cents; Jul 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.35, down 9 cents; Jul 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.67 3/4, up 23 1/2 cents. Funds were said to have been light sellers on the day, in line with the other two main products in the sector, shedding an estimated 3,000 Chicago wheat contracts on the day. Weekly export sales for wheat failed to meet expectations, coming in at 324,500 MT versus the 450-650 TMT anticipated. Iraq, Jordan and Tunisia have all bought elsewhere this week. Russia's crop keeps shrinking, but they will still likely be aggressive sellers of what they have got at least during the first half of the 2012/13 season. In tomorrow's report US all wheat plantings are estimated at 56.9m (vs 55.9m in March), June 1st wheat stocks are pegged at 726 million bushels versus 862 million this time last year.