Chicago Market Sets Fresh Highs

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 08:49 | Categorized as

03/07/12 -- Soybeans: Jul 12 Soybeans closed at USD15.72 1/4, up 40 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.74 3/4, up 36 3/4 cents; Jul 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD454.10, up USD11.60; Jul 12 Soybean Oil closed at 52.95, up 77 points. Soybeans have only ever been higher than this once before - July 2008 when crude oil was peaking at USD147/barrel. Hot and dry remains the call for the majority of the US Midwest, with only some scattered showers in forecast. Michael Cordonnier estimated the 2012 US soybean yield at 41.0bpa versus his previous estimate of 42.0bpa and the USDA's 43.9bpa. Private exporters announced the sale of 35,000 MT of old crop soybean oil to China. Enthused by these prices Celeres estimate that Brazilian farmers already have a third of their 2012/13 crop sold even though planting is 2 1/2 months away yet.

Corn: Jul 12 Corn closed at USD7.18 3/4, up 26 1/4 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD6.74 1/2, up 18 3/4 cents. The weather market rumbles on, with corn hitting fresh highs for this latest move, posting the highest close for a front month since last September. Michael Cordonnier estimated the 2012 US corn yield at 150bpa versus his previous estimate of 156bpa and almost 10% below the USDA's 166bpa. Celeres estimated Brazil’s 2011/12 corn crop at a record 69 MMT versus their previous estimate of 66 MMT thanks to a bumper second crop. US markets are closed tomorrow for the Independence Day holiday, there will be no electronic market either. Depending on the latest weather developments and forecasts Thursday could be explosive. Thursday's normal weekly export reports will be delayed until Friday.

Wheat: Jul 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.82 1/4, up 27 3/4 cents; Jul 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.85, up 25 1/2 cents; Jul 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.86, up 14 3/4 cents. Wheat followed corn and beans higher, with the Jul 12 Chicago contract closing at the highest levels for a front month in just over a year. US spring wheat ratings slipped to 71% good to excellent versus 77% a week ago, showing that even it isn't totally immune to US drought. Even so, 71% is still a very respectable amount. India announced that it will sell up to 2 MMT of state-owned reserves following back top back record harvests and bumper stocks. Ukraine’s Prime Minister said they have no plans on limiting grain exports in 2012/13. A senior Russian official made a similar statement last week. That's a bit like a vote of confidence for a Premier League manager weeks before his dismissal.