Nogger's Blog

24/08/12 -- Soycomplex: Sep 12 Soybeans closed at USD17.37 1/2, up 10 1/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD17.31 1/2, up 16 1/2 cents; Sep 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD533.40, up USD5.60; Sep 12 Soybean Oil closed at 56.24, up 12 points. Funds fancied adding to their length heading into the weekend and were said to have been net buyers of around 6,000 contracts on the day. For the week, Sep 12 beans were 66 1/2 cents higher, with Nov 12 beans up 85 3/4 cents. Sep 12 meal added USD10.70 ans Sep 12 oil 313 points. Taiwan bought three cargoes totalling 173,000 MT of US and Brazilian soybeans for November, March and July shipment. The IGC yesterday pegged world soybean production at 255 MMT in 2012/13, around 5.5 MMT lower than the USDA's current estimate. Brazil will produce 76 MMT, they said, which is 5 MMT less than the USDA said earlier this month, although more than 10 MMT up on this year's drought reduced crop. After the close the Pro Farmer Crop Tour placed 2012 US soybean yields at 34.8 bu/acre, with production at 2.6 billion bushels. Both numbers are around 3.5% down on the USDA's yield of 36.1 bpa and a production number of 2.692 billion bushels issued a fortnight ago, and according to them crop conditions have improved slightly since then. China will auction off another 400,000 MT of government-owned soybeans in the coming week in an attempt to cap domestic price rises. Market rumour suggests that China bought over 1.0 MMT of US beans this week.

Corn: Sep 12 Corn closed at USD8.02 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD8.08 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents. For the week that places Sep 12 corn 4 cents higher, with Dec 12 up just 1 1/4 cents. Unlike soybeans, corn seems to be struggling to add to the upside, with funds net sellers of an estimated 7-8,000 corn contracts on the day. Based on tonight's close new crop Dec 12 corn is only 3 1/4 cents higher on the month of August than it began it, whilst new crop Nov 12 beans have shown a net gain of 90 1/2 cents. Weekly US corn exports remain sluggish at these levels, whilst soybean exports are robust, seemingly almost unaffected by price. US corn faces competition on the export arena from the likes of Brazil, and also soon from what will be a newly harvested Black Sea corn crop, whilst for soybeans the US has the market more or less to itself. The IGC pegged Ukraine's 2012 corn crop at 20 MMT, a little below the USDA's 21 MMT and 21.2 MMT from MDA CropCast. Ukraine, Brazil and Argentina are expected to export around 43 MMT of corn between them in 2012/13, almost 10 MMT more than the US who are projected to have their lowest export volume since 1985/86 in the coming season. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour wound up by giving us a final projected US corn yield of 120.25 bu/acre after the close, with production set at 10.478 billion bushels, some 2.8% lower than the current USDA estimate. In English money that's an output of just over 266 MMT, some 9 MMT less than the IGC's estimate of 275 MMT released yesterday.

Wheat: Sep 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.67 1/2, down 7 cents; Sep 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.76 1/4, down 6 3/4 cents; Sep 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.18 1/2, down 2 cents. On the week Chicago wheat was 7 cents lower, with Kansas wheat down 9 1/4 cents and Minneapolis 9 cents easier. Funds were said to have been net sellers of around 3,000 CBOT wheat contracts on the day. HRW wheat farms in Kansas and Oklahoma are expecting good rains over the coming days that should improve field moisture for seeding. "Statistics Canada projected a record large 2012 Canadian wheat harvest this week, due largely to a 9.7% increase in plantings," said Martell Crop Projections. Similar to here in Europe, crop conditions look variable. "Excessive wetness in Saskatchewan, the top wheat province, is a threat to grain quality and yields. Since April 1, west central Saskatchewan has received 150-200% of normal rainfall. Alberta growers meanwhile anticipate an excellent harvest. Conditions Aug 7, the most recent provincial crop report, were 88-89% good-excellent in spring wheat and canola. This is Canada’s largest canola province and second biggest wheat grower. Manitoba crops were adversely affected by extreme July heat in the flowering and grain filling stages. Spring wheat and canola quality was very good, but a smaller seed size is expected to reduce the yield," they add.