Nogger's Blog

17/08/12 -- Soycomplex: Sep 12 Soybeans closed at USD16.71, up 14 3/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD16.45 3/4, up 20 1/2 cents; Sep 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD522.70, up USD6.20; Sep 12 Soybean Oil closed at 53.11, up 7 points. Nov 12 beans were 2 cents higher on the week. Funds were said to have been net buyers of around 5,000 soybean contracts on the day. There continues to be much debate over potential US soybean yields, and how much benefit may be derived from recent rains. The widely followed Pro Farmer Crop Tour begins on Monday, with final yield estimates out on Friday. The GFS model turned drier for the week ahead in its midday forecast. The weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday, with the trade expecting US soybean good to excellent ratings to be steady to three points higher than the 30% of a week ago.

Corn: Sep 12 Corn closed at USD7.98 1/2, up 3/4 cent; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD8.07 1/4, down 1/4 cent. For the week Sep 12 corn was 1 1/2 cents lower and Dec 12 corn 2 cents easier. As with soybeans, there's plenty of discussion around about US yields, with some disasters and a few pleasant surprises being reported amongst early harvested corn. It seems likely that most of the corn with better yield potential is still in the field. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour may give us a better handle on yield potential next week when it travels from Ohio through to Minnesota. An Ohio state tour this week found an average corn yield there of 139 bpa. There's some evidence of demand destruction kicking in for US corn. Yesterday's weekly export sales total was a disappointment at a combined 253,400 MT versus the 350-550 TMT expected. Southeast Asia bought 80 TMT of Pakistani corn this week. Funds were said to have been around even on the day in the corn pit. The weekly commitment of traders report showed large funds adding around 17,000 corn contracts to their long position on the week through to Tuesday.

Wheat: Sep 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.74 1/2, up 12 3/4 cents; Sep 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.85 1/2, up 13 cents; Sep 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.27 1/2, up 6 cents. For the week Chicago wheat was 10 3/4 cents lower, with Kansas wheat falling 7 1/2 cents and Minneapolis down 8 cents. Funds were said to been net buyers of around 3,000 Chicago contracts on the day. South Korea bought 49 TMT of US wheat for Nov/Dec shipment, although it is given credit for having bought much more than that from other origins, most likely India, this week. Thailand bought 40 TMT Indian wheat for Sept/Oct shipment this week, it's first such purchase in 8 years. Rabobank say China may import 4.0 MMT of wheat in 2012/13, mostly from Australia. Argentina's Ag Ministry estimate the 2012/13 wheat area at 3.7 million hectares versus 4.63 million in 2011/12. Planting is said to be 95% complete and recent soaking rains have got the crop off to a good start with 85% of the crop rated as being in good to very good condition. Ongoing concerns about Russian supplies and export potential look set to support prices in the long run.