Nogger's Blog

06/08/12 -- Soycomplex: Aug 12 Soybeans closed at USD16.07 1/2, down 48 3/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD15.84 1/4, down 44 1/2 cents; Aug 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD518.20, down USD13.30; Aug 12 Soybean Oil closed at 51.48, down 56 points. Better than expected weekend rains and calls for a cooler and wetter outlook for the next couple of weeks got beans on the defensive, fostering ideas that maybe the US crop could see something of an eleventh hour rescue. The USDA reported the sale of 106 TMT of new crop soybeans to China. Safras e Mercado's weekly report says that Brazilian farmers have sold 95% of their 2011/12 soybean crop versus 73% a year ago and 79% on average at this time. They've already reportedly sold 39% of their 2012/13 soybean crop, planting of which is still more than a month away, versus 14% a year ago and 11% on average. Celeres estimate Brazil's 2012/13 soybean crop at a record 78.1 MMT, up 17.8% from 2011/12, with plantings seen at a record 27 million hectares, up 8.1% from a year ago. The USDA reported good/excellent soybeans at 29%, unchanged from last week, although poor/very poor increased two points to 39%. They said that 71% of the crop is setting pods versus the 5 year average of 53%.

Corn: Sep 12 Corn closed at USD8.03, down 7 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD8.05, down 2 1/2 cents. Weekend rains, and a wetter outlook, is less likely to be of benefit to corn than soybeans at this stage. Funds were estimated to have been net sellers of around 4,000 corn contracts on the day, enough for a modestly lower close. Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s 2011/12 corn crop at 72.4 MMT versus the USDA's 70.0 MMT. They also placed Brazil’s 2011/12 corn exports at 15.5 MMT, well above the USDA's forecast 11.0 MMT. The USDA crop condition report cut good/excellent ratings by one point to 23%, with very poor raised two points to 25%. That now leaves exactly half of the crop rated as poor/very poor. High temperatures and early planting have the crop very forward, at 26% dented already compared to the 5 year average of only 7%. Doane estimated the 2012 US corn crop at 10.792 billion bushels and pegged yields at 123.1 bpa. The USDA will released their own updated estimates on Friday. Ethanol plants continue to voluntarily slow or cease production as their profit margins narrow or disappear altogether.

Wheat: Sep 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.93 1/4, up 2 cents; Sep 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.95, down 1 cent; Sep 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.44 1/2, unchanged. SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2012 grain crop at 72.0-75.0 MMT versus their previous estimate of 78.5-81.5 MMT and 94.0 MMT last year. Of that they say that Russia’s 2012 wheat crop will be 40.5-43.0 MMT versus their previous estimate of 46.5 MMT and 56.2 MMT last year. The USDA's current estimate is 49.0 MMT. If those figures are correct than some form of export curb looks a real possibility once again. Russia’s Ag Ministry say that the grain crop this year will total 75-80 MMT, with the wheat crop at 45.0 MMT. Saudi Arabia bought 290 TMT of hard wheat from the US, EU, Australia, and South America for Oct/Nov shipment over the weekend. There are some reports that Texas feed lots are looking at buying wheat from Canada. The USDA reported the winter wheat harvest at 88% complete, only one point ahead of normal. By complete contrast spring wheat harvesting has raced ahead to 47% done versus just 12% normally at this juncture. Good/excellent spring wheat conditions were unchanged at 63%.