Nogger's Blog

08/08/12 -- Soycomplex: Aug 12 Soybeans closed at USD16.30, up 24 3/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD15.81 1/4, up 15 1/2 cents; Aug 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD521.90, up USD9.60; Aug 12 Soybean Oil closed at 51.58, up 29 points. Funds were said to have been net buyers of around 5,000 soybean contracts on the day as the market rallied late in the session as renewed weather models removed some of the rain that had been in the forecast for the US Midwest for later in the week. The USDA reported the sale of 140,000 MT of US soybeans to unknown for 2012/13 shipment, adding support. There's some trade talk that China may have used the recent price dip - soybeans had fallen a dollar and a half in the past two and a half weeks - to book up to 1 MMT of US beans. Domestic prices on the Dalian Exchange there are currently around USD20/bushel. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 250-450 TMT. Taiwan bought 12 TMT US beans for Aug/Sept shipment overnight.

Corn: Sep 12 Corn closed at USD8.10 3/4, up 14 3/4 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD8.16 1/2, up 16 cents. Funds were said to have been net buyers of around 10,000 contracts on the day. A drier outlook to midday weather forecasts was supportive along with expectations for a strong weekly export sales number tomorrow following last week's announced big sale to Mexico. The trade is forecasting anywhere between 1-2 MMT. There's much uncertainty over exactly how low the USDA will go with it's yield estimate in Friday's WASDE report. A Dow Jones survey says 126.2 bu/acre, whist a Reuters one goes 127.3 bu/acre. The latter would be the lowest since 1997 and the former the worst since 1995. The NOAA officially declared that July was the hottest month ever in the US, with average temperature of 77.6 F, which is 0.2 degrees above the previous record set in 1936. Taiwan bought 23 TMT US corn for Aug/Sept shipment overnight.

Wheat: Sep 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.99 1/4, up 10 1/4 cents; Sep 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD9.03 3/4, up 7 3/4 cents; Sep 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.45 1/4, up 9 cents. Wheat bounced back from a lower opening in early trade on spillover support from beans and corn despite Russia saying that it had no plans to restrict grain exports. Russia’s Ag Minister said that 38% of the 2012 grain crop has been harvested so far and that average yields are 2.17 MT/ha, down 27% from a year ago. Ukraine's Prime Minister said 2012 total grain supply is estimated at 58 MMT (including carryin stocks) with the 2012 grain crop forecast at 45 MMT. Their exportable surplus is said to be 21-23 MMT (including 5 MMT of wheat, 3 MMT of barley and 12.7 MMT of corn). Estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 400-675 TMT. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says that Argentine wheat plantings will be down 22% this year.