Chicago Posts Modest Correction

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 08:30 | Categorized as

22/08/12 -- Soycomplex: Sep 12 Soybeans closed at USD17.48, down 5 1/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD17.27 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents; Sep 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD535.70, down USD7.90; Sep 12 Soybean Oil closed at 56.17, up 60 points. Fund selling on beans was estimated at around 3-4,000 contracts on the day, most likely on profit-taking after recent rises. Fundamentally nothing much has changed. StatsCanada pegged rapeseed production there at 15.4 MMT, which was 1 MMT lower than the trade was expecting. Day three of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour found some better yield potential than the first two days. In Southwest Iowa they came up with a soybean pod count of 1,120.2 pods versus 1,128.1 pods a year ago and the 3-year average of 1,279.2 pods. That particular survey only took in a small number of fields though. In West central Iowa they found pod counts of only 555.2 versus 1,251.09 pods a year ago. A Reuters poll of 11 analysts estimated US soybean yields at an 8-year low of 36.6 bu/acre, half a bushel more than the USDA said earlier this month. Production was forecast at a 4-year low of 2.713 billion bushels, which is 21 million more than the USDA. Estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for soybeans are 500-650 TMT.

Corn: Sep 12 Corn closed at USD8.30 1/4, down 1 cent; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD8.34 3/4, down 4 cents. Funds were estimated as net sellers of around 3-5,000 contracts on the day breaking a five day winning streak. The same Reuters poll as mentioned above estimated corn yields at 121.5 bpa, a 16-year low and 4.7 bpa beneath the USDA's latest forecast. Final US production this year was pegged at 10.5 billion bushels, an 8-year low and 279 million below the USDA. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour found an average corn yield of 145.5 bpa in Southwest Iowa versus 143.2 bpa a year ago and the 3-year average of 167.2 bpa. In West central Iowa though they came up with a shockingly low corn yield of just 89.39 bpa versus 172.64 bpa a year ago. The weekly ethanol grind showed an increase to 823,000 barrels per day from 819,000 bpd last week. StatsCanada pegged corn production there at 11.7 MMT, which is 1 MMT up on last year. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 200-350 TMT.

Wheat: Sep 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.96 1/2, down 4 cents; Sep 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD9.05 1/4, down 3 cents; Sep 12 MGEX Wheat closed at $9.41 3/4, down 3 cents. Funds were estimated to have been light sellers of 1-2,000 Chicago wheat contracts on the day. StatsCanada estimated wheat production there at 27.0 MMT, exactly what the trade was expecting and up almost 7% on last year. Tender activity has been fairly light so far this week. South Korea bought 18,700 MT of Canadian milling wheat for Nov/Dec shipment. Japan isn't issuing it's normal weekly tender. There are dryness concerns now developing in Western Australia. ANZ Banking Group said that if this dry weather persists into September then Western Australia’s 2012/13 wheat output could fall to 6.0 MMT compared to 11.6 MMT in 2011/12. Argentina's newly planted wheat crop has had plenty of moisture to get it going, with Buenos Aires already having had 8.7 inches of rain so far this month. Weekly export sales for tomorrow are estimated at 400-550 TMT.