Nogger's Blog

29/08/12 -- Soycomplex: Sep 12 Soybeans closed at USD17.63 1/4, up 30 3/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD17.53, up 30 3/4 cents; Sep 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD543.30, up USD9.10; Sep 12 Soybean Oil closed at 56.64, up 91 points. Fund buying was estimated at around 6,000 soybean contracts on the day as Nov 12 beans raced to fresh contract highs. Meal finished close to all-time highs, with plenty of interest around even at current levels. Thai feed mills are rumoured to have bought up to 1 MMT of meal recently - possibly of South American origin. Indonesia and Vietnam are also in the market for meal, seeking 100 TMT and 200 TMT each for shipment towards the end of the year. The Chairman of US soybean export council said that the US could virtually run out of beans by the end of the 2012/13 crop year. The Chinese government will auction off another 400 TMT of soybeans tomorrow in an effort to contain rising prices. Weekly export sales tomorrow will be scrutinised for signs of a let up in demand. There may not be any, the trade is expecting soybean sales of 600-800 TMT.

Corn: Sep 12 Corn closed at USD8.10 1/4, up 20 3/4 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD8.13 1/2, up 18 cents. Fund activity saw them end as estimated net buyers of around 12,000 corn contracts on the day. Concerns that the heavy rains and high winds associated with Hurricane Isaac could cause further damage to an already embattled US corn crop added support. Today’s weekly EIA report showed US ethanol production falling slightly in the past week. The report also showed US ethanol stocks at 18.5 Million barrels, higher than last year's 17.9 million. Unlike soybeans there has been some evidence of demand destruction for corn, which is reflected in reduced demand from the ethanol sector and declining exports. Estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for corn are 250-450 TMT. Tomorrow is Position day for September futures. Friday is month end and the last day of trading before the long Labor Day holiday weekend.

Wheat: Sep 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.85 1/2, up 30 3/4 cents; Sep 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.96 1/2, up 29 cents; Sep 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.40 1/2, up 30 1/2 cents. Fund buying was estimated at around 5,000 Chicago wheat contracts on the day. The trade is pondering the outcome of a meeting on Friday between the Russian PM and his Ag Ministry, and the implications for wheat exports. An outright ban, such as the one infamously and spontaneously introduced in 2010 is not anticipated, but some form of export restrictions surely cannot be far away. Prior to that there's a fair bit of interest around in wheat. Saudi Arabia are looking for 550 TMT of optional origin hard wheat for Dec/Feb shipment, having already bought 290 TMT for Oct/Nov recently. Syria seek100 TMT of optional origin milling wheat for Sep/Oct shipment. Tunisia today bought 150 TMT of optional origin wheat for Oct/Dec shipment. Estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 450-600 TMT.