EU Wheat End Of Week Report

03/08/12 -- EU grains finished mostly higher with Nov 12 London wheat up GBP3.50/tonne to GBP192.00/tonne and Nov 12 Paris wheat up EUR4.50/tonne to EUR261.00/tonne.

On the week overall Nov 12 London wheat added GBP4.30/tonne and Nov 12 Paris wheat gained EUR3.25/tonne. As you can see that means that most, if not all, the week's gains came today on spillover support from firmer US grains.

Drought or no drought, customs data shows that Russia made a bright start to the 2012/13 export campaign shipping out 2 MMT of grain during the first month of the new season - it's second highest ever total for the month. August exports are likely to be even higher at 2.5 MMT, according to SovEcon.

At this rate they will hit their anticipated export ceiling of 13-14 MMT before the end of the year, around half of the volume exported in 2011/12. It seems likely therefore that Russia will effectively be out of the market in the New Year.

The Russian government meet next week to discuss the situation.

Down Under, customs data shows that Australia exported 2.34 MMT of wheat in June - up 63% from June 2011.

EU exports meanwhile are off to a sluggish start, with Brussels only issuing export licences for 135 000 MT of wheat this week, bringing the cumulative total for the season so far to only 748,000 MT, 32% down compared to 1.1 MMT at the same stage last year.

Morocco did at least buy 300,000 MT of EU wheat in a tender today.

Across the pond the US drought continues. Iowa had its third hottest and third driest July on record. Illinois had the second hottest and fourth driest July on record. The USDA are out next Friday with revised crop production estimates.

August Paris malting barley went off the board today. August corn follows suit on Monday and August milling wheat next Friday.