Nogger's Blog

20/08/12 -- Soycomplex: Sep 12 Soybeans trade at USD16.84 1/2, up 13 1/2 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans are at USD16.59, up 13 1/4 cents; Sep 12 Soybean Meal is at USD524.40, up USD1.70; Sep 12 Soybean Oil closed at 53.47, up 36 points. The market will be looking to tonight's USDA crop progress report released after the close to see if there are any signs that recent rains have improved US yield potential, or merely halted their decline. There seems to have been little rain around for the western corn belt over the weekend, with shower activity mainly confined to the south and east. China's CNGOIC see second half 2012 soybean imports falling to 25.5 MMT from just over 29.0 MMT in the first half of the year. After peaking at a more than two year high last month, August imports will decline to 4.5 MMT, some 23% down on July, and Sep/Oct soybean imports may fall further to a combined 7 MMT, they say. Domestic stocks are plentiful and crusher demand slow due to a squeeze on margins, they add.

Corn: Sep 12 Corn trades at USD8.06 3/4, up 8 1/4 cents; Dec 12 Corn is at USD8.15, up 7 3/4 cents. There's virtually no rain at all in the forecast for the Corn Belt for the next 2-3 days. That will enable further harvest progress, but do little for later maturing corn. Tonight's crop progress report will be of interest. Last week the USDA left good/excellent crop conditions unchanged at 23% with poor/very poor raised one point to 51%. Bunge have said that they may soon start exporting larger volumes of corn from Brazil into the US. They have only been exporting small amounts of corn so far. Brazil harvested a record corn crop of 72.78 MMT this year thanks to bumper "sarafina" or second crop. The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange say that Argentina has sold 79% of their 2011/12 corn crop and 6% of their yet to be planted 2012/13 corn crop. They estimate Argentina’s 2012/13 corn area at 3.1 million hectares, down 20% from 2011/12.

Wheat: Sep 12 CBOT Wheat trades at USD8.75, up 1/2 cent; Dec 12 CBOT Wheat stands at USD8.95 1/4, up 3/4 of a cent. Russia’s Ag Ministry say that the grain crop this year will total 75-80 MMT, but other private estimates are now much lower with SovEcon coming in at 71.0-72.5 MMT and IKAR at 73 MMT. SovEcon now estimate the wheat crop there at only 39.0-41.0 MMT, a level that sparked the 2010 export embargo. Argentina Ag Ministry estimate the 2012/13 wheat area at 3.7 million hectares versus a previous estimate of 3.82 million and 4.63 million in 2011/12. Planting should be just about done, and recent good rains will help get the reduced crop off to a good start at least. The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange say growers there had sold 100% of their 2011/12 wheat crop and 18% of their 2012/13 wheat crop. Tonight's USDA report should be of more importance for corn and soybean than for wheat. Last week the USDA reported the US winter wheat harvest at 88% complete, with spring wheat harvesting at 47% done. Good/excellent spring wheat conditions were 63%.