USDA Report Nitty Gritty

10/08/12 -- Here's a few of the salient points from this afternoon's USDA report:


US 2012 wheat production raised from 2.224 billion bushels to 2.268 billion, contrary to expectations for a small reduction to 2.220 billion. Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 projected 2.1 MMT lower. Russian output cut by more than expected to 43 MMT from 49 MMT last month. Kazakhstan down 2 MMT to 11.0 MMT and Ukraine raised 2 MMT to 15.0 MMT. Indian production increased 2.9 MMT. Global wheat consumption for 2012/13 raised 3.2 MMT on switch from corn to wheat. That sees world 2012/13 ending stocks reduced from 182.4 MMT to 177.2 MMT, around 1.75 MMT lower than anticipated. Europe's wheat crop trimmed slightly to 132.9 MMT, Canada's increased from 26.6 MMT to 27.0 MMT, Australia's unchanged at 26.0 MMT.


US 2012 corn production cut more than anticipated to 10.779 billion bushels, down 2.2 billion on last month. Yields pegged at 123.4 bpa versus the expected 126.2 bpa and 146.0 bpa in July, the lowest since 1995/96. Demand from the US ethanol sector cut from 4.9 billion bushels to 4.5 billion. US Imports for 2012/13 raised by 45 million bushels to 75 million: "reflecting strong domestic corn prices and competitively priced foreign supplies." US 2011/12 old crop ending stocks raised more than expected to 1.021 billion bushels, that helps 2012/13 carryout come in in line with expectations at 650 million bushels, although that's still 533 million down on last month. World 2012/13 ending stocks 123.3 MMT, slightly higher than expected thanks to Brazil's corn crop for next season being raised 3 MMT to a record 70 MMT and Argentina's up by a similar amount to 28 MMT. China's corn crop this year raised from 195 MMT to a record 200 MMT. Ukraine's crop cut 3 MMT to 21 MMT and Europe's down 4 MMT to 61.5 MMT.


US 2012 soybean production estimated lower than expected at 2.692 billion bushels, down 12% on last month. Yields cut from 40.4 bpa to 36.1 bpa, 1.1 bpa lower than the average trade estimate. US 2011/12 old crop ending stocks cut by more than expected to 145 million bushels. New crop US ending stocks cut in line with trade estimates to a very tight 115 million bushels. World 2012/13 ending stocks a bit lower than forecast at 53.4 MMT. Brazil's 2012/13 crop potential raised 3 MMT from last month to a record 81 MMT. Argentina's next crop left unchanged at 55 MMT. These represent production increases of 24% and 34% respectively but are a long way off being written in tablets of stone and will need some pretty ideal growing conditions to come to fruition.