Nogger's Blog

07/09/12 -- Soycomplex: Sep 12 Soybeans closed at USD17.31 3/4, down 12 3/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD17.36 1/2, down 10 1/2 cents; Sep 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD531.60, down USD0.20; Sep 12 Soybean Oil closed at 56.07, down 71 points. For the week Sep 12 beans fell 32 3/4 cents and Nov 12 beans 20 cents. Sep 12 meal was down USD15.50 and Sep 12 oil dropped 35 points. The USDA's delayed weekly export sales report came in at 5,100 MT of old crop beans and 520,600 MT of new crop, below the range of 700-900 TMT expected. Fund selling was estimated at around 5,000 soybean contracts on the day. Informa Economics said that they expect the USDA to lower US soybean yields next week to 35.4 bu/acre, from 36.1 bpa last month, giving a final crop of 2.639 billion bushels (versus 2.692 billion in August). They also gave their own estimate for 2012 US soybean production of 2.686 billion bushels. Stats Canada reported rapeseed stocks there at the end of July at at 0.788 MMT, lower than the 1.0 MMT that the trade was expecting and 54% down on the 1.719 MMT of a year ago. CNGOIC said that China imported 1.75 MMT of rapeseed the first seven months of 2012, and estimated full 2012 imports at a record 3 MMT, in what appears to be some degree of switching away from soybeans.

Corn: Sep 12 Corn closed at USD7.95, down 2 1/4 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.99 1/2, up 1 cent. Sep 12 corn was 7 3/4 cents lower on the week, with Dec 12 unchanged as the market continues to flit either side of the USD8/bu mark. Funds were said to have been net buyers of around 2,000 corn contracts on the day. Weekly export sales were another disappointment for corn, even though the bar wasn't set too high at an anticipated 200-350 TMT what we actually got was a net reduction of 104,200 MT in old crop and sales of just 129,200 MT for new crop. There was also a small sale of 19,000 MT for 2013/14 delivery, giving total net sales of just 44,000 MT. South Korea have been buying optional origin corn this week, most likely from Brazil. Informa said that the USDA will come out with a corn yield of 119.8 bu/acre next week, pegging production at 10.310 billion bushels. Last month's USDA estimates had yields at 123.4 bu/acre and production at 10.779 billion bushels. As with soybeans, in addition to estimating what the USDA will say next week, they also gave their own forecast for US corn production. That was 690 million higher than what they think the USDA will say at 11 billion bushels. The USDA's monthly supply & demand and crop report will be out September 12th.

Wheat: Sep 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.84 3/4, up 12 3/4 cents; Sep 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.99 1/4, up 11 3/4 cents; Sep 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.40 3/4, up 11 1/2 cents. On the week wheat was the leader, with Chicago adding 14 3/4 cents, Kansas 18 1/2 cents and Minneapolis 9 cents. Weekly export sales of 554,400 MT for 2012/13 delivery and 19,000 MT for 2013/14 delivery were towards the top end of expectations of 450-650 TMT. StatsCanada estimated wheat stocks there at the end of July at 5.879 MMT, a bit lower than the expected 6.1 MMT and versus 7.176 MMT a year ago. Rabobank cut their Australian wheat production estimate for the coming year to 22.79 MMT versus 29.5 MMT this year. That's one of the lowest estimates around, a Bloomberg survey suggests 23.25 MMT, ABARES estimate 24.1 MMT and the USDA 26.0 MMT. Meanwhile there's some talk of potential flood damage to wheat in Argentina. Funds were estimated as net buyers of around 3,000 Chicago wheat contracts on the day. The Commitment of Traders report shows funds adding to their existing longs in CBOT and KCBT wheat on the week through to Tuesday.