Nogger's Blog

14/09/12 -- Soycomplex: Sep 12 Soybeans closed at USD17.36 1/2, down 7 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD17.39, down 8 1/4 cents; Sep 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD524.60, down USD8.90; Sep 12 Soybean Oil closed at 56.64, up 18 points. On the week Sep 12 beans gained just 4 3/4 cents, whilst Sep 12 meal shed USD7 and Sep 12 oil added 57 points. Funds were estimated as being net sellers of around 5,000 soybean contracts on the day. September contracts went off the board today. The recent trend of spring months gaining on the nearbys continued today for both beans and meal. That may be down to harvest pressure, or the notion that the forwards are too cheap. The US has 72% of the USDA's entire projected 2012/13 sales on the books already. The USDA had the soybean harvest at 4% complete last week, that should be nearer to 10% on Monday night. The Fed announcement of further economic stimulus measures has the dollar under pressure, falling to a 4 1/2 month low against the pound today. Lanworth Inc, the satellite technology analysts, estimated the 2012 US soybean crop at 2.6 billion bushels versus the USDA's estimate of 2.634 billion and 15% down on last year. The NOPA August Crush came in at 124.773 million bushels, lower than the 128.3 million the trade was expecting, although above the 118.8 million crushed in Aug 2011.

Corn: Sep 12 Corn closed at USD7.77 1/2, up 3/4 cent; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.82, up 8 1/4 cents. On the week Sep 12 was 17 1/2 cents lower, with Dec 12 down a similar amount. Funds were said to have been net buyers of around 8,000 corn contracts on the day. Argentina said that it has authorised a further 2.75 MMT of 2011/12 corn for export, bringing the total for the marketing year to date to 16.45 MMT. Planting for the 2012/13 crop is just getting underway, hampered by too much rain. The Ministry says that 2.2% of the crop is in the ground so far compared to 4.3% this time last year. Harvest pressure may be weighing a little on corn. The USDA said that 15% of the crop was harvested as of last week, that could be more like 25% in Monday night's report. Lanworth estimated the 2012 US corn crop at 10.14 billion bushels versus the USDA's estimate released Wednesday of 10.727 billion. That would represent a cut of 18% on last year, despite a sharp increase in planted area. "China is on track to produce a record corn harvest this season estimated at 198-200 MMT. Domestic consumption is pegged at 201 MMT, suggesting that only small imports will be needed in the 2012/13 marketing year. Growing conditions have been nearly ideal. Very heavy July rainfall insured favourable pollination while summertime warmth boosted development encouraging tall plants and large ears," say Martell Crop Projections.

Wheat: Sep 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.97 1/2, up 18 1/2 cents; Sep 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD9.29, up 25 1/4 cents; Sep 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.71 3/4, up 32 1/4 cents. On the week overall Chicago wheat gained 12 3/4 cents, Kansas wheat added 29 3/4 cents and Minneapolis 31 cents. Funds were said to have been net buyers of around 4,000 Chicago wheat contracts on the day. Egypt bought Russian, Ukraine and French wheat for the second time this week. US and Canadian wheat worked out around USD25-27/tonne more expensive once freight is added on. The market seems pretty relaxed about that though, confident that the former two at least will soon be sold out. ANZ estimated Australia’s 2012 wheat crop at only 20 MMT, far below the USDA's 26 MMT figure, which if true would clearly place a large question mark over the USDA's forecast 2012/13 Australian exports of 21 MMT, even with a large carryin from 2011/12. In the US winter wheat planting is just getting underway on the Great Plains. "Rainfall increased last week in the US heartland, easing drought and improving field moisture for winter wheat planting. Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas received scattered heavy rainfall over 1 inch. There is a long way to go to fully replenish parched fields, but recent rains are a step in the right direction," say Martell Crop Projections.