Nogger's Blog

17/09/12 -- Soycomplex: Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD16.69, down 70 cents; Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD16.70, down 70 cents; Oct 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD503.50, down USD20.00; Oct 12 Soybean Oil closed at 54.98, down 199 points. Funds were heavy sellers, dumping an estimated 20,000 soybeans, 7,000 soyoil and 5,000 soymeal contracts on the day. Talk of a looming trade dispute with China, much needed rains for Brazil ahead of planting, and some reports of better than expected US soybean yields rattled the confidence of the bulls. The USDA announced the sale of 210TMT of US beans to unknown for 2012/13 delivery, but that offered little comfort today. When the funds want out the only thing to do is stand to one side and let them run for the door. Harvest pressure was probably also a feature, the USDA pegged the US soybean harvest at 10% complete, with good/excellent conditions raised one point to 33%

Corn: Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.48, down 34 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.52 1/2, down 33 1/2 cents. Funds were said to have been net sellers of around 22,000 corn contracts on the day. The USDA said that the corn harvest is 26% done and upped good/excellent crop conditions two points to 24%. The News agency Telam estimated the 2012/13 Argentine corn crop at a record 25-26 MMT versus the official Argentine estimate of 24.5 MMT, although that's still lower than the 28 MMT forecast from the USDA.

Wheat: Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.78, down 46 1/4 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD9.01 1/4, down 46 3/4 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.30 3/4, down 47 1/4 cents. Funds were net sellers of 5,000 CBOT wheat contracts on the day. There's some rains in the forecasts for Australian wheat areas. US winter wheat areas also picked up some useful rain last week, although more is needed in both cases. Russia’s Grain Union estimated Russia’s 2012 grain crop at 72 MMT with an exportable surplus as 16-17 MMT.