Nogger's Blog

24/09/12 -- Soycomplex: Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD16.10, down 11 3/4 cents; Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD16.11, down 11 cents; Oct 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD481.60, down USD2.90; Oct 12 Soybean Oil closed at 53.76, down 69 points. Fund selling was estimated at 6,000 contracts on the day. Nov beans fell through USD16/bu at one point, but at the end of the day managed to hold above that level and close within the middle of the day's trading range. Weekly export inspections were deemed disappointing at 12.119 million bushels against the expected 18-21 million. Funds dumped 8.3% of their length in the week through to Tuesday, according to Friday's commitment of traders report, and have been further sellers since. Aboive said that Brazil has exported 30 MMT of soybeans this season so far. They only have them down to ship half a million more than that in the full year. Celeres said that Brazil has sold 98% of their 2011/12 bean crop and 46% of their 2012/13 beans. After the close the USDA said that 22% of the US crop was harvested versus only 4% this time a year ago. Good/excellent ratings improved two points to 35%. The USDA will release the Sept 1st stocks numbers on Friday, the trade is expecting soybean inventories of 132 million bushels versus 215 million last year.

Corn: Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.44 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.48 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents. Fund selling was estimated at 6,000 corn contracts on the day. Corn export inspections of 24.231 million bushels were at the top end of trade expectations of 18-24 million. South Korea bought 65 TMT of optional origin corn for Feb shipment. The Philippines Department of Agriculture estimated their 2013 corn crop at 8.4 MMT versus the 2012 corn crop of 7.5 MMT. That may negatively impact upon corn imports, and they may even become a net exporter for the first time in any meaningful volume since 1991. The USDA placed the corn harvest at 39% done versus 13% normally. Good/excellent conditions were left unchanged at 24%. Friday's upcoming Sept 1st stocks report is expected to show corn inventories of 1.126 billion bushels versus 1.128 billion a year ago. MARS estimated the EU-27 corn yield at 6.05 MT/ha versus their previous estimate of 6.28 MT/ha and down 20.6% from a year ago.

Wheat: Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.92, down 5 1/4 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD9.13 1/4, down 13 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.50 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents. Fund selling was estimated at 3,000 Chicago wheat contracts on the day. Weekly export inspections of 22.424 million bushels were in line with the expected 17-23 million. Sept 1st US all wheat stocks are estimated at 2.281 billion bushels on Friday, 14% up versus 1.999 billion a year ago. US all wheat production is estimated at 2.27 billion bushels. The USDA said that 25% of the US winter wheat crop has been planted versus 27% normally. The Ukraine Ministry estimated their 2012/13 grain crop at 46.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 46.5 MMT and down 19% from 56.7 MMT a year ago. Exports are forecast at 20.0 MMT, down 8% from 21.794 MMT a year ago. Iraq are tendering for 50 TMT of optional origin wheat, having bought Russian wheat in a similar tender a week ago.