Nogger's Blog

25/09/12 -- Soycomplex: Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD16.11 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents; Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD16.14 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents; Oct 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD485.20, up USD3.60; Oct 12 Soybean Oil closed at 53.09, down 67 points. As "Turnaround Tuesdays" go this was a quiet and modest affair, due perhaps to only light fund buying, placed at around 2,000 soybean contracts on the day. With the US harvest progressing to 22% done as of Sunday night, there's plenty of talk of better than feared yields, and the potential for the USDA to increase production estimates in the Oct 11 WASDE report. Before that we get the Sept 1 stocks report on Friday, with trade estimates for beans ranging 115-152 million bushels, with the average guess around 131-132 million. Brazilian plantings are just getting underway, with rains finally moving north into the centre and west of the country. The trade is conscious of the anticipated bumper production from South America in 2013. Oil World estimated the Canadian canola crop at 15.0 MMT, down 0.7 MMT from their previous estimate, but up from 14.46 MMT a year ago. Exports are however seen falling to 7.85 MMT from 8.70 MMT a year ago.

Corn: Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.43 3/4, down 1 cent; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.47 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents. Funds were said to have been net sellers of around 3,000 corn contracts on the day. Trade estimates for Friday's Sept 1 stocks report average around 1.11-1.13 billion bushels from within a range of estimates of 0.887-1.261 billion. Another ethanol plant, Biofuel Energy Corp's facility in Fairmont, Minnesota said it was taking downtime due to poor processing margins. An interesting development mid-harvest. The weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow. Last week's production was 834,000 barrels/day versus 871,000bpd a year ago. The Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s 2012/13 corn area at 4.0 million hectares, down 10% on last year, but considerably better than the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange's estimate of 3.4 million and an increase also on the USDA's 3.8 million. South Korea bought 120 TMT of optional origin corn and 133 TMT of South American origin corn for February shipment. Michael Cordonnier estimated the 2012 US corn yield at 119.0bpa, unchanged from his previous estimate.

Wheat: Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.86 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD9.11, down 2 1/4 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.42 1/4, down 8 1/4 cents. Funds were said to have been net sellers of around 2,000 Chicago wheat contracts on the day. An interesting development was Egypt's GASC tendering for wheat for December shipment, with the results expected tomorrow. Will Russian wheat be offered at all that far forward? And if so at what price? Whatever, it is unlikely that US wheat will win a share of the order. Algeria are also looking for 50 TMT of optional origin wheat for November shipment, whilst Taiwan seeks 50,500 MT of US wheat for November shipment. There's talk of Australia's wheat crop slipping below the 20 MMT mark, versus the USDA stubbornly stuck at 26 MMT, primarily due to drought in Western Australia. As well as Sept 1 stocks, we will also get a final estimate on 2012 US wheat production from the USDA on Friday, with trade estimates centred around 2.270 billion bushels from within a range of estimates of 2.247–2.286 billion. Sept 1 stocks are seen at 2.281 billion bushels from within a range of estimates of 2.159–2.533 billion.