Nogger's Blog

10/09/12 -- Soycomplex: Sep 12 Soybeans closed at USD17.13, down 18 3/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD17.18 3/4, down 17 3/4 cents; Sep 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD527.20, down USD4.40; Sep 12 Soybean Oil closed at 55.96, down 11 points. Funds were said to have been net sellers of around 6,000 soybean contracts on the day amidst harvest pressure. Talk that China may have cancelled US bean purchases coincided with the news that their August soybean imports fell to a 6-month low of 4.42 MMT. The Chinese government estimate September bean imports falling further to 4.2 MMT, with October imports at only 3.0 MMT. Profit-taking ahead of Wednesday's USDA report was probably also a feature. Reuters report that five out of twenty analysts in a recent survey of theirs are expecting the USDA to raise potential soybean yields this week. After the close they upped good/excellent crop conditions two points to 32%, which may add a bit more spillover pressure in the morning. Celeres say that 45% of the yet to be planted 2012/13 Brazilian bean crop has been sold versus 18% a year ago.

Corn: Sep 12 Corn closed at USD7.81, down 14 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.83 1/4, down 16 1/4 cents. Funds were said to have sold 8,000 corn contracts on the day, also in profit-taking ahead of Wednesday's USDA report. For the first week of the 2012/13 marketing year weekly export inspections from the USDA continue to show signs of demand rationing at only 9.8 million bushels, even if that was a bit better than last week's paltry 6.37 million. The trade was expecting a number in the 15-10 million range. Weekly exports need to average around 25 million to match the USDA's 2012/13 forecast. The USDA said that the US corn his harvested is 15% complete versus 10% a week ago and 5% for the 5-year average. Good /excellent crop conditions were left unchanged at 22%. Ukraine has exported 1.18 MMT of corn in the Jul 1st-Sep 7th timeframe compared to just 56,300 MT a year ago. Their 2012/13 grain export estimate of 20 MMT is expected to be dominated by corn (at around 12 MMT). The average trade estimate for US corn production from the USDA on Wednesday is 10.403 billion bushels with a range of 9.860 to 10.779 billion and 10.779 billion last month.

Wheat: Sep 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.68 1/4, down 16 1/2 cents; Sep 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.84 1/2, down 14 3/4 cents; Sep 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.27 1/4, down 13 1/2 cents. Funds were estimated to have been net sellers of around 3,000 Chicago wheat contracts on the day. Weekly export inspections for wheat came in at 19.586 million bushels versus expectations of 21-24 million. The USDA reported winter wheat plantings at 4% complete, two points behind average, which is perhaps due to Plains dryness and Midwest/Delta wetness following Hurricane Isaac. It's early days yet, there are chances of beneficial moisture on the Plains Weds/Thurs. India is flexing it's muscles on the international wheat export stage, making sales to Asian and Middle Eastern buyers in the past few days. Trade estimates are that private exporters will sell around a further 2 MMT between now and the end of the year. The Indian government said that wheat production in 2013 (planting begins next month) will at least match this season's record. ABARES comes out tomorrow with their latest 2012/13 Australian grain crop estimates. The trade is generally forecasting a wheat crop of around 22.0-23.0 MMT versus their previous estimate of 24.1 MMT and 29.5 MMT in 2011/12.