EU Wheat Drfits Lower On Lack Of Fresh News
Once again fresh news was thin on the ground, encouraging profit-taking. Whilst none of the markets look particularly bearish, a lower close in Chicago wheat tonight (which is where it is as Europe closes) would be the ninth decline in the last ten sessions.
APK-Inform pegged the Russian wheat crop at 41.3 MMT, with the USDA attache in Moscow estimating the crop at 41.0 MMT. Whilst neither figure is up to much compared to output of 56.2 MMT last year, both are above recent estimates from SovEcon and IKAR last week of 38-39 MMT.
The Russian grain harvest 65% complete at 55 MMT with average yields 27% down at 1.9 MT/ha say Ministry. In Ukraine, the grain harvest is 67% done at 25.8 MMT with average yields down 15% to 2.57 MT/ha say their local Ministry.
An assortment of private analyst's production estimates now seem to be narrowing the range on US soybean and corn yields to around the 34.5-35.0 bu/acre region for the former and 117-119 bu/acre for the latter. Both would be around 4% lower than the USDA said last month.
Recent heavy Midwest rains associated with the leftovers of Hurricane Issac may be too late to help corn or soybeans much, but they are seen boosting soil moisture ahead of winter wheat plantings.
Meanwhile, it's not just the UK that has had a problem with wet and dull growing conditions this summer.
"Statistics Canada anticipates a bumper wheat harvest of near 27 MMT there this season, but crop quality and yields are in jeopardy from extremely wet growing conditions in northern Saskatchewan. Numerous reports of flooding and disease have been issued as grain swathing began the last week of August," report Martell Crop Projections.
"Saskatchewan has been persistently wet all summer in the northern third of the province, where June-August rainfall accumulated to 150-200% of normal. More heavy rain developed again last week ranging from 50- 140 millimetres. Northeastern Saskatchewan producers reported 32% surplus field moisture in the August 21-27 farm report," they report.
"Below-normal yields are anticipated in northwestern, north-central and northeastern Saskatchewan, where producers complained about damage from flooding, winds and hail. Incidence of fungus diseases were also increasing, particularly sclerotina. High vomitoxin also has been reported, another threat to grain quality," they add.
