Lunchtime News
10/09/12 -- The overnight electronic market sees wheat around 4-6 cents higher, with corn mostly 3-4 cents firmer and soybeans flat to up 3 cents. Fresh news to start the week is somewhat limited. Wheat was the leader Friday and looks like starting that way this week too, with London and Paris wheat also nudging higher.
Chinese Customs data pegs August soybean imports at 4.42 MMT, the lowest monthly total for six months. Even so that still makes 2012 YTD imports 39.34 MMT, up 17.4% on same period in 2011. The CNGOIC think tank say that soybean imports will continue to tail off in September and October, to maybe only 3.5 MMT each month, as Chinese crush margins tighten.
India say that they plan to keep exporting wheat after recent rains improved conditions ahead of the sowing of the 2012/13 crop. They lifted an export ban this time last year and private exporters are said to have shipped out around 3 MMT of wheat since then (with the government offloading a further 600 TMT). Up to 2 MMT more could be sold off by private enterprises between now and the end of the year it is reckoned.
Asian buyers were said to have been picking up Indian wheat over the weekend.
The harvest in Ukraine stands at 26.29 MMT off 68% of the planted area. Yields are averaging 2.58 MT/ha, down 15% on last year. Sowing of the 2013 winter rapeseed crop is already well advanced at 86% complete, say the Ministry.
Exports are going well too. Ukraine has exported 3.76 MMT of grains in the 2012/13 marketing year so far, up 67.6% on year ago. Of that total wheat accounts for 1.67 MMT; barley 870 TMT and corn 1.18 MMT.
Kazakhstan's harvest is at a similar stage of completion, although their grain crop is mostly wheat, with very little corn. So far they've cut 8.678 MMT of grains off 69.8% of the planted area with average yields of just 0.8 MT/ha vs 1.52 MT/ha in 2011 - a drop of 47%.
Australia remains dry, and wheat production forecasts there are falling, although the 6-10 day outlook is wetter in Western Australia, eastern New South Wales, and southeastern Queensland.
Dryness concerns in Europe are already being voiced in some quarters, with much of France only picking up around 50% of normal moisture in the past 30 days. Large parts of Germany and Poland are also dry, detrimental ahead of winter wheat planting. Dryness is also seen persisting across Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria.
On the US Plains dryness today/tomorrow is expected to give way to showers Wednesday/Thursday, although more rain is needed to replenish soil moisture deficits for winter wheat planting.
