Nogger's Blog

21/09/12 -- Soycomplex: Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD16.21 3/4, up 3 cents; Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD16.22, up 4 1/4 cents; Oct 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD484.50, up USD2.20; Oct 12 Soybean Oil closed at 54.45, down 18 points. On the week overall Nov 12 beans lost over USD1.17, or 6.7%, with nearby meal falling just over USD40 and oil almost 220 points. Beans settled within the middle of the day's range in volatile trade, in what Reuters said was probably its biggest weekly loss in a year. Informa Economics increased their forecast for the 2012 US soybean planted area to 77.14 million acres, more than a million above the latest USDA number, based on recent new findings from the Farm Service Agency. That places the soybean crop at 2.662 billion bushels versus the USDA's 2.634 billion based on a harvested area of 75.698 million acres. Informa also estimated US 2013 plantings at a record 79.9 million acres, around 5% up on this year. Oil World currently estimate the Brazilian soybean crop in 2013 at 82 MMT (up 23%), Argentina at 56 MMT (up 37%), Paraguay at 8.6 MMT (up 115%), Uruguay at 3.1 MMT (up 94%) and Bolivia at 2.45 MMT (up 11%). All five would be record production levels for each country. So it looks like 2013 is going to be "year of the soybean" - all we need now is to get there on the proceeds of this year's limited availability, and hope that the weather doesn't spoil the party. Soybean jam, tomorrow.

Corn: Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.48 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.51, up 1 1/2 cents. On the week overall Dec 12 corn fell 33 3/4 cents. Informa issued a re-appraisal of US corn planted area too, based on fresh data from the FSA, coming up with an estimate of 97.2 million acres, a new 75 year high and over 750 million higher than the number currently in use by the USDA. They placed the corn crop at 11.093 billion bushels which is 366 million higher than the USDA's September forecast, using a yield estimate of 126.6bpa versus the USDA's 122.8bpa. Pro Ag estimated this year's US corn yield at 135.0 bpa. Informa, in their first estimate for 2013 plantings, put the corn area next year even higher at 97.537 million acres. As with soybeans there are also reports of corn yields improving as the harvest progresses north. Unlike soybeans, corn sales for 2012/13 are currently only around a third of the full USDA target for the new season. Stiff competition will be faced from Ukraine, who have harvested around 3 MMT of an anticipated 20 MMT corn crop so far, and also from Brazil and Argentina later in the season. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said Argentina has planted 5% of their 2012/13 corn crop versus 7.7% a year ago. Very heavy August rains are slightly hampering plantings, but should get the crop off to a great start.

Wheat: Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.97 1/4, up 17 3/4 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD9.26 1/4, up 16 3/4 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.57 3/4, up 17 1/4 cents. Chicago and Kansas wheat were little changed on the week, whilst Minneapolis was around 15 cents or so weaker. Funds were said to have been net buyers of 3,000 Chicago wheat contracts on the day. Informa put the US wheat crop at 2.273 billion bushels, slightly above the USDA's current forecast of 2.268 billion. Russia's Economy Minister said that some for of limit on grain exports was "entirely possible" only for the Deputy PM to dismiss the idea shortly afterwards. Japan's corn usage in animal feed reportedly reached a 20-year low in July and the world's (and America's) largest corn buyer said that plans to buy 1.21 MMT of feed wheat in 2012/13 versus a previous estimate of 764 TMT. "Scattered showers and cooler temperatures improved winter wheat planting conditions slightly in the Southern Great Plains. Planting was 5-11% complete last weekend in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas," say Martell Crop Projections. Elsewhere "showers have increased in Victoria and New South Wales in September, brightening the wheat outlook somewhat, along with cooler temperatures recently. Western Australia wheat prospects have worsened however as conditions there remain hot and dry," they add.