Nogger's Blog

08/10/12 -- Soycomplex: Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD15.51, down 1/2 cent; Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.48, down 3 cents; Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.02, down 11 cents; Oct 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD478.50, up USD3.80; Oct 12 Soybean Oil closed at 50.48, down 28 points. Funds were said to have been light net sellers of around 1,000 soybean contracts on the day in positioning ahead of Thursday's USDA report. That is expected to show US soybean yields increasing to 37.0 bpa, from within a range of estimates of 35.5-38.5 bpa and versus the September USDA estimate of 35.3 bpa. Production is also expected higher at 2.770 billion bushels versus 2.634 billion last month. US 2012/13 ending stocks are also called higher than last month's 115 million bushels at 134 million. World ending stocks are seen at 53.3 MMT versus 53.1 MMT in September. The regular Monday weekly US crop progress report comes out tomorrow due to the Columbus Day holiday. That is expected to show bean harvesting around 60-65% complete versus 29% normally. Also due out tomorrow will be CONAB's first forecasts on 2012/13 Brazilian soybean production. Other analysts estimates are in the region of a record 78-82 MMT. Record output is also anticipated from Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia and Uruguay where farmers are keen to jump onto the soybean bandwagon for 2013.

Corn: Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.42, down 6 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.42, down 6 1/2 cents. Fund selling was estimated at around 3,000 contracts on the day. Thursday's USDA report is expected to show little change on yields from last month, with the average trade estimate coming in at 122.7 BPA, although from within a fairly wide range of estimates of 119.9–127.0 bpa. The September USDA estimate was 122.8 bpa. Corn production however is expected lower by virtue of an anticipated reduction in harvested area. The average trade estimate is 10.598 billion bushels, from within a range of estimates of 9.954–11.194 billion and versus the September USDA estimate of 10.727 billion. A Reuters survey sees US 2012/13 corn ending stocks falling to a 17 year low of 648 million bushels versus the September USDA estimate of 733 million and versus the 2011/12 carryout of 988 million. World carryout is also seen falling, to 121.322 MMT, from within a range of estimates of 116.0-124.2 MMT and versus the September USDA estimate of 123.95 MMT. The US corn harvest is expected to be 65-75% complete in tomorrow's crop progress report, versus an average 40% normally. The Argentina Ag Ministry estimated the 2012/13 corn area at 4.97 million hectares, little changed versus 5.0 million in 2011/12, adding that as of Friday 24% of the crop had been planted.

Wheat: Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.61, up 3 1/2 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.82 3/4, up 4 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.24 1/2, up 5 cents. Funds were said to have been net buyers of around 2,000 Chicago wheat contracts on the day. The US wheat harvest is done, 2012/13 ending stocks are seen at 627 million bushels, from within a range of estimates of 550-714 million and 71 million below the September USDA estimate of 698 million. World wheat carryout is also seen falling to 172.813 MMT, from within a range of estimates of 167.4-177.3 MMT and versus the September USDA estimate of 176.71 MMT. Syria said it had bought 100 TMT of Ukrainian wheat for Oct/Dec shipment. The Ukraine grain harvest is said to now be 83% complete, producing 35 MMT to date. The Ukraine Ministry said that the country has exported 6 MMT of grain so far this marketing year, and expects full season exports at 20-21 MMT versus 22.8 MMT in 2011/12. Rusagrotrans said that Russia has exported 7.8-7.9 MMT of grains in the Jul/Sep period, and sees that rising to around 13.5 MMT by the end of the year. Oct grain exports are forecast at 2.8 MMT, with November's declining to 1.8 MMT and December's to 1.1 MMT as availability dries up.