Nogger's Blog

25/10/12 -- Soycomplex: Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD15.64, down 6 1/2 cents; Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.66, down 6 1/4 cents; Dec 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD481.40, down USD0.50; Dec 12 Soybean Oil closed at 51.45, down 39 points. Fund selling in beans was estimated at 3,000 contracts on the day. Weekly export sales of 522,200 MT fell a little below trade estimates of 600-900 TMT. Shipments however were very strong at 1,641,600 MT of which China took a whopping 1,135,900 MT. That's the fourth week in a row that actual shipments have been above 1 MMT, and constitutes the highest weekly total since Feb 2011. This weeks sales bring total 2012/13 commitments to 25 MMT, or 72.5%, versus the USDA's projected 34.5 MMT for the entire season. The USDA also announced the sale of 120 TMT of soybeans to "unknown" for 2012/13 shipment, probably partial confirmation of some of the recently rumoured Chinese business. The Chinese government sold only around 10% of the state-owned soybean reserves it offered at auction today due to a hike in the asking price.

Corn: Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.42, down 12 1/2 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.44, down 12 cents. Fund selling was estimated at 10,000 contracts on the day. Weekly export sales of only 142,300 MT were a little below the relatively modest trade expectations of 150-375 TMT. That figure included decreases for China of 120,300 MT. Weekly sales of around 430 TMT are needed to achieve the USDA's projected export target of 31 MMT this season. Total commitments for the 2012/13 are only 34.7% of this USDA target at 10.7 MMT. This time last year that total was 20.5 MMT. Actual shipments were only 290 TMT, also in complete contrast to those for soybeans. The IGC cut their world corn production estimate by 3 MMT to 830 MMT, 5% down on 876 MMT last year. Ending stocks were trimmed 1 MMT to 117 MMT which is 13% down on last season. Excessive rains in Argentina may see some intended corn acres shift into soybeans. MDA CropCast cut their Argentine corn production estimate by 360 TMT from last week to 26.65 MMT for this reason.

Wheat: Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.72 3/4, down 11 1/4 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD9.14 1/4, down 7 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.45 1/4, down 9 3/4 cents. The IGC cut it's world wheat crop estimate by 2 MMT from last month to 655 MMT, a 5% drop on last season's 690 MMT. Ending stocks were trimmed 3 MMT to 172 MMT - a 14% stocks to usage ratio. Weekly US export sales came in at 572,000 MT, a bit better than the 250-450 TMT expected. Actual shipments were 379,600 MT. Total year-to-date commitments are 14.34 MMT, which is less than half the USDA's projected 31.5 MMT. The wheat marketing year is Jul/Jun though, as opposed to Oct/Sep for corn and soybeans. Iraq has pushed back its tender to buy a nominal 50 TMT of optional origin wheat. They are expected to buy considerably more than that, although none of it is likely to be of US origin. "Export forecasts (for 2012/13) have been cut for the US and Australia in favour of bigger shipments by Russia and India," the IGC said. The trade expects US wheat exports to improve in the second half of the season.