Nogger's Blog

30/10/12 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 5-6 cents higher, with meal up USD2.20-3.50 and oil down 5-8 points. Funds were said to have been net buyers of around 4,000 soybean contracts on a day disrupted by Hurricane Sandy. The USDA crop progress report, originally scheduled for Monday night won't now emerge until tomorrow. China has imported 44.3 MMT of soybeans in the first three quarters of 2012, and will end the calendar year importing a record 57.5 MMT, according to the Ag Ministry there, a 9.3% increase on 2011. This year's Chinese soybean crop may fall as low as 10 MMT, according to some reports, versus the current USDA estimate of 12.6 MMT. That may see soybean imports in 2013 rise to an unprecedented 65 MMT. October's imports were higher than originally forecast at 4.22 MMT, say the Commerce Ministry due to low international prices. Safras place Brazil's soybean crop at 28% planted, up from 12% last week and 24% normally.

Corn: CBOT corn closed around 4-5 cents higher as fund bought an estimated 5,000 corn contracts on the day. Informa estimated Brazilian corn plantings this year at 16 million hectares, a 5% increase on last season. They also forecast Ukraine's corn crop at 18.8 MMT, 2.2 MMT less than the USDA currently project. Egypt bought 180 TMT of what is thought to be mostly Argentine corn, with South American corn still at a hefty discount to US material. Reports suggest that a Mississippi ethanol plant is to idle due to low margins, the latest in a series of closures. Continued wet weather in Argentina might see their intended corn acreage cut sharply, according to many private estimates. The Ag Ministry in Argentina place the corn crop at only 40% planted versus 55% normally. The trade expects the US corn harvest to be around 93% complete when the USDA release their delayed crop progress report tomorrow. That should keep the effects of Hurricane Sandy to a minimum.

Wheat: CBOT wheat close a cent or so lower in old crop months and around 6 cents firmer on new crop. Tunisia are tendering for 100,000 MT of optional origin wheat, and Egypt are also back in the market looking for wheat for Dec/Jan shipment. US origin is thought unlikely to feature in either. Germany sold 200 TMT of wheat to Iran. Rain is seen cutting Brazil's wheat crop which is currently in the middle of being harvested. Tomorrow's delayed USDA report will also feature the first US winter wheat crop ratings of the season. India are tendering to sell 55 TMT of wheat for Nov/Dec shipment. FCStone are out on Thursday with their November crop production forecasts and Informa are out on Friday ahead of next week's USDA numbers. The latter have already cut their Australian wheat production estimate from 23.5 MMT to 21.2 MMT, citing drought.