Nogger's Blog

15/10/12 -- Soycomplex: Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.92 1/2, down 30 cents; Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.91 3/4, down 30 1/4 cents; Dec 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD456.10, down USD9.10; Dec 12 Soybean Oil closed at 50.01, down 56 points. Soybeans closed below USD15/bu for the first time since the first week of July. Fund selling was estimated at 10,000 soybean contracts on the day. Friday's Commitment of Traders report shows that their recent liquidation phase, which has seen soybean prices tumble more than USD2.50/bushel, places them with their smallest long in over 6 months. China's CNGOIC said that October soybean imports would be higher than originally forecast at 4.25 MMT and that Nov/Dec shipments would also increase on original estimates due to the recent price drop. In the calendar year 2012 China will import a record 57 MMT of soybeans, they said. Malaysia said it was to cut the export tax on crude palm oil as domestic stocks hit a record high, and with prices recently falling to a more than 2 year low. After the close the USDA placed this year's US soybean harvest at 71% complete versus 58% last week and 64% a year ago.

Corn: Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.37 1/4, down 15 1/2 cents; Mar 13 Corn also closed at USD7.37 1/4, down 15 1/2 cents. Fund selling was estimated at 12,000 contracts on the day. Friday's COT report shows funds cutting their net long position to the smallest in 2 months as of last Tuesday night. Demand for US corn, or the lack of it, has got them spooked drought or not. Friday's combined weekly export sales total of just 14 TMT for both 2012/13 and 2013/14 shipment compares very poorly with the 1.3 MMT sold in the same week a year ago. Reuters say that feeders in the SE have recently signed a deal to import 600 TMT of Argentine corn, hot on the heels of a similar deal to import 750 TMT of Brazilian corn announced recently. The USDA said last week that the US would import 1.9 MMT of corn in 2012/13 - the highest total in many years. Some private analysts think that 3 MMT may be nearer the mark. Exports meanwhile will tumble to 31 MMT, they said - the lowest since 1991/92. Weekly export inspections of 17.235 million bushels were below expectations and the 23.5 million needed to reach this target. After the close the USDA pegged the US corn harvest at 79% complete versus 38% on average and 42% a year ago.

Wheat: Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.48 1/4, down 8 1/2 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.81 1/4, down 9 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.21, down 3 1/4 cents. Fund selling on Chicago wheat was estimated at 2,000 contracts on the day. Weekly export inspections for wheat were poor at just 7 million bushels versus 13.2 million last week and 16.6 million in the same week of 2011. US winter wheat plantings have reached 71 % complete, according to the USDA, That's bang in line with the five year average. Emergence improved form 23% last week to 36% this week, although that still lags the five year average of 44%. Wheat prospects are looking up in southern growing areas of New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, according to Martell Crop Projections. October rains were 1-1.5 inch in key wheat areas Eastern Australia and favourable for flowering and heading wheat. Although at the same time October growing conditions deteriorated in Western Australia with hotter and drier weather," they add. Elsewhere: "Welcome cooling has finally developed in Russia’s southern winter wheat zone, but drought continues to be a very issue. Winter wheat has been slow to emerge in the Southern District. This is the top winter-wheat growing area that accounts for 42% of Russia wheat production," they say.