Chicago Ends Little Changed

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 08:15 | Categorized as

03/10/12 -- Soycomplex: Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD15.31 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents; Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.32 1/4, down 1 cent; Oct 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD465.50, up USD2.10; Oct 12 Soybean Oil closed at 50.33, up 6 points. It was a lacklustre looking close, although front month Nov 12 beans fell close to USD15/bu at one point. There was little in the way of fresh news with China closed for most of the week, restricting potential export sales activity, although private exporters did report the sale of 21,000 MT of soybean oil to China for 2012/13 delivery. Palm oil fell to a three year low yesterday, recent weakness has been pressuring the soycomplex. The Kenanga Investment Bank estimated Malaysia’s September palm oil stocks at a record 2.43 MMT. Crude oil crashed below USD90/barrel, adding a negative tone that beans eventually did quite well to shake off. Monsanto estimated the 2013 US soybean area at "above 76 million" acres, nowhere near as high as Informa's recently suggested 79.9 million. Weekly export sales in tomorrow's report are expected to be robust once again at around 750-900 TMT.

Corn: Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.56 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.57 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents. Corn also closed well off session lows. Ethanol margins are declining, and with it demand for corn from that sector. The weekly ethanol grind was down 3% from last week and 8.5% lower than this week a year ago. Monsanto estimated the 2013 US corn acreage at 96 million, again some way below Informa's recent 97.537 million. Shanghai's JC Intelligence estimated China’s 2012 corn crop at 171 MMT vs. the USDA's 200 MMT. That sounds like a stunning difference, until you consider that the former pegged 2011 production at 167 MMT vs. 193 MMT from the USDA. China's current corn buying, or lack of it, doesn't suggest that they are going to be running out a while yet. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 200-400 TMT. Last week's sales were very poor at less than 400 MT, the second worst weekly total since 1996.

Wheat: Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.73, up 1 1/2 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.91, down 1 1/4 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.29 3/4, up 5 1/2 cents. Egypt bought a 240 TMT combination of mostly French wheat for Dec 11-20 delivery, along with one cargo of Argentine wheat, at prices that calculate out around USD10-12/tonne cheaper than US wheat when freight is factored in. It would seem that Russia are out of the market, at least that far forward, as no offers were forthcoming from that direction. Russia has exported 7.435 MMT of grains between Jul 1 and Sep 26, which is 19% down on last year, the Ministry say. Stats Canada's 2012 crop production report comes out tomorrow, all wheat output was pegged at 27 MMT last month. The Ukraine Ministry say that this year's grain harvest is 81% complete, producing 33.26 MMT, with average yields down 14% on last year. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales are 400-600 TMT.