Nogger's Blog

16/10/12 -- Soycomplex: Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD14.93 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents; Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.92 3/4, up 1 cent; Dec 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD452.80, down USD3.30; Dec 12 Soybean Oil closed at 50.47, up 46 points. Funds were judged to have been even on beans on the day. As "Turnaround Tuesdays go, this was a modest affair. The soycomplex managed a very minor correction after two days of hefty losses, although beans tried to hold above USD15/bu in early gains they couldn't manage it. The USDA said 110,150 TMT of US soybeans were sold to "unknown" for 2012/13 shipment. CNGrain pegged the Chinese soybean crop down 10% at 13 MMT this year, whilst consumption is seen rising 5.8% to 70.55 MMT and imports up 12% to 59 MMT. CNGOIC estimate the Chinese soybean crop even lower at 12.8 MMT, down 12%, with rapeseed output also seen falling 9% to 12.2 MMT. Small-scale Chinese farmers are more comfortable sowing grains than they are oilseeds it would appear. There's 4-8 inches of rain in the forecast for southern Brazil across the next 15 days, according to World Ag Weather, which will be a boost for new crop soybean plantings. Reports continue to come in that US yields are better than expected for many farmers.

Corn: Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.38 1/4, up 1 cent; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.38 1/4, up 1 cent. Funds were said to have been even on corn on the day. CNGOIC estimated the Chinese corn crop up 4% to 201 MMT. Forecast rains in Brazil will be of benefit to corn plantings although wet conditions in Argentina will put things back a little. Farmer selling is light as they busy themselves with harvest and aren't over keen on prices a dollar off the highs after the worst drought in 50 years. Last week's USDA's harvested acreage estimate may well prove to be too high is also the general feeling. So despite stagnant US corn exports, ending stocks will tighten as the season progresses. Whilst domestic demand from the US ethanol sector is also under pressure, another plant announced a temporary closure in the last few days, offtake isn't seen falling off a cliff. "Rains are expected to pick up again across central and eastern corn areas of South Africa this week, which should maintain sufficient moisture there for corn and germination and early growth. The rains will slow planting a bit, although no significant setbacks are anticipated," say MDA CropCast.

Wheat: Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.47 3/4, down 1/2 cent; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.82 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.24 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents. Funds were said to have been modest net sellers of around 1,000 Chicago wheat contracts on the day. CNGOIC pegged the Chinese wheat crop up 0.5% at 118 MMT. China bought 295,000 MT of Canadian spring wheat. Concerns remain for US winter wheat going into dry ground. Rainfall last week increased in the US bread-wheat states averaging 0.55 inch and above normal, although soil moisture is still inadequate reflecting severe summer drought. The cumulative rainfall back to June is only 63% of normal, say Martell Crop Projections. Argentine wheat areas remain too wet, Western Australia remains too dry. "Earlier rains improved moisture considerably across Morocco, and rains last week improved moisture in eastern Algeria and northern Tunisia. Rains are expected to return to western Morocco and northwestern Algeria this week, which should further improve moisture there as well. This will favour wheat germination as planting begins over the next few weeks," say MDA CropCast.