Nogger's Blog

18/10/12 -- Soycomplex: Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD15.45 1/2, up 36 1/4 cents; Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.46 1/4, up 38 cents; Dec 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD463.30, up USD8.60; Dec 12 Soybean Oil closed at 52.30, up 127 points. Fund buying was estimated at around 10,000 soybean contracts. Weekly soybean sales of 525,200 MT fell short of the anticipated 650-850 TMT, although China did take 268,400 MT including 120,000 MT switched from unknown. Exports to date this marketing year are 4.7 MMT after another strong week of shipments - 1.5 MMT which is the highest weekly total in twenty months. That takes total 2012/13 commitments so far to 24.5 MMT or over 71% of the full season target. The US remains pretty much the only soybean shop left open in the entire world. Safras e Mercado say only 1.32 MMT of Brazilian old crop beans remain available for export until next season’s harvest. They also say that 37.56 MMT of new crop beans have already been sold. What early new crop beans that are available in January are expected to be snapped up by the domestic crushers. Brazilian soybean plantings are seen as 9% complete versus 13% a year ago as some areas wait for rain. "Rains did return to south central Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, southwestern Minas Gerais, Goais, and central and eastern Mato Grosso this past week, which further improved moisture there for soybean planting and early growth. However, notable dryness is maintaining slow planting and germination in eastern Parana, north central Mato Grosso do Sul, and central and northern Minas Gerais," say MDA CropCast.

Corn: Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.60 3/4, up 15 1/4 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.59 1/4, up 14 1/2 cents. Fund buying was estimated at around 10,000 contracts on the day. Weekly export sales came in at the low end of the 150-300 TMT expected at 166,700 MT. Once again that is well short of the 420 TMT/week to meet the latest USDA target for 2012/13. Existing corn commitments for export are 10.6 MMT so far this season, 34% of the USDA's targeted 31 MMT. This is substantially lower than in recent years. French analysts Strategie Grains cut their EU-27 grain production estimate by 1 MMT from last month to 269.5 MMT, mainly due to a corn crop more than 20% down on last year at 52.8 MMT. Argentina are said to be considering raising their 2012/13 corn export quota by 7 MMT to 15 MMT is plantings meet expectations. The Ministry there are forecasting a 2012/13 corn crop of 28 MMT. Corn plantings however have been hampered by excessive rains in many parts of the country, and are currently estimated to only be around 2/3rds complete of the target area of around 4 million hectares. "Rains should build back across much of the region this week which will maintain abundant moisture for corn early growth. Some wetness concerns will also persist across central areas," say MDA CropCast. They raised their estimate for 2012/13 world feedgrain production to 1022.3 MMT today, up 1.4 MMT from last week due mainly to acrage adjustments in U.S. corn.

Wheat: Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.68 1/2, up 12 1/4 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD9.04 3/4, up 10 3/4 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.44, up 4 1/2 cents. Weekly export sales of 410,000 MT were slightly ahead of expectations. South Korea bought 55 TMT of optional origin wheat from Toepfer for Jan shipment. The Russian grain union estimated 2012/13 grain exports at 15-16 MMT versus the Ag Minister's estimate of only 10-12 MMT. So far this season Russia has exported 8.7 MMT of grains. Winter grain plantings there currently stand at 15 million hectares out of a targeted area of 16.8 million. Ukraine says it has so far planted 7.4 million hectares of the planned 8.5 million ha of winter grains and that benign weather conditions will extend the planting period by a couple of weeks. US winter wheat is getting planted in far from ideal conditions. "Significant dryness continues to stress wheat across Nebraska, northeastern Colorado, and northwestern and south central Kansas. Much more rainfall is still needed in Washington and southeastern Idaho in the Pacific Northwest as well," said MDA CropCast. Elsewhere "showers favoured southeastern Queensland, eastern New South Wales, and eastern Victoria this past week, with drier weather noted elsewhere. The drier pattern is now beneficial for wheat, as drydown and harvesting build. Rains should remain quite limited across most areas this week, which will allow maturation and harvesting to continue to progress well," they add.