Nogger's Blog

17/10/12 -- Soycomplex: Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD15.09 1/4, up 15 1/2 cents; Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.08 1/4, up 15 1/2 cents; Dec 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD454.70, up USD1.90; Dec 12 Soybean Oil closed at 51.03, up 56 points. Beans managed to rally and hold above USD15/bu on bargain hunting and lack of farmer selling. Decent soaking rains finally appear to have arrived in Brazil. "The 2- 3 inch rains in Western Parana from yesterday’s showers put a dent in the drought, it is worth remembering though that October rainfall is normally 6-8 inches," said Martell Crop Projections. Soybean planting in Parana is estimated around 25% complete, around five points down on normal at this time. Likewise in Brazil's top producing state of Mato Grosso where around 18-20% of the crop has been sown. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales for beans are 650,000-850,000 MT versus 523,700 MT last week. Commitments to date are now running at 70% of the USDA's recently upward revised target for the entire season. The trade will be looking to see how much, if any, of the recently rumoured Chinese business turns up in tomorrow's report.

Corn: Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.45 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.44 3/4, up 6 1/2 cents. Corn rallied as funds came in as net buyers of around 5,000 contacts on the day. Brazilian corn plantings are seen around 70% complete in the top state of Parana and 50% done in Rio Grande do Sul. Rains are hampering Argy corn sowings, which are seen around 27-28% complete vs 32-33% this time last year. Japan is expected to soon start booking corn for Q1 of 2013. They bought 250 TMT of Ukraine corn for Nov/Dec shipment yesterday, but it is thought that they may view Ukraine as a risky seller due to their inability to supply on time Jan/Feb this year due to freezing conditions at the ports. That may give US corn a competitive edge assuming that cheaper South American supplies will have dried up by then ahead of their 2013 harvest. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 150,000-300,000 MT. It will be interesting to see how accurate that proves to be after a run of disappointing results recently. Last week's sales were only 4,200 MT for 2012/13 shipment and 10 TMT for 2013/14.

Wheat: Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.56 1/4, up 8 1/2 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.94 3/4, up 12 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.40, up 15 1/2 cents. Algeria bought 400 TMT of optional origin wheat, thought by some to be Argentine origin and/or a mixture of Argy/European wheat. Certainly it is unlikely that US wheat will feature. The Algerian Ministry pegged their upcoming grain harvest at 5.1 MMT, up 20% on this year. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 250,000-400,000 MT versus a disappointing 279,877 MT last week. The trade is pinning it's hopes on an improved performance in the second half of the season. It is entirely possible that there is/has been more domestic feed use of wheat in the US than the USDA currently predict, meaning that they don't necessarily have to meet the USDA's full season export target of 31.5 MMT. US winter wheat is around three quarters planted, but dryness in the Great Plains remains a serious issue. Here, the cumulative rainfall back to June is only 63% of normal, say Martell Crop Projections.