EU Grains Lower On The Week As Harvest Winds Down

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 08:32 | Categorized as

05/10/12 -- EU grains were mixed with Nov 12 London wheat unchanged at GBP199.05/tonne and with Nov 12 Paris wheat EUR1.25/tonne weaker at EUR259.00/tonne.

For the week Nov 12 London wheat was GBP3.70/tonne lower, with Nov 12 Paris wheat down EUR6.75/tonne. Out of interest May 13 London wheat is currently running at almost parity with May 13 Paris wheat.

EU sales are going well, with Brussels issuing 518 TMT of soft wheat export licenses this week, bringing the 2012/13 marketing year-to-date total to 3.81 MT. France was the largest recipient as per usual, accounting for 218 TMT of this week's total.

As what the HGCA call "one of the latest harvests in recent years" draws to a close, they are standing by last week's estimate of wheat yields in the UK to average somewhere between 6.8-7.2 MT/ha. Once again they say that the final yield is likely to be "at the lower end" of that range.

That would correspond with Coceral's production estimate of only 13.6 MMT this season released late last week.

Quality remains in short supply with low specific weights a feature with this year's wheat, barley and oats. Rapeseed yields are a bit better than the five year average at 3.5 MT/ha, although oil content is low, the HGCA comment.

Russia's grain crop currently stands at 67.5 MMT off 92.5% of the planned harvested area, suggesting a final crop of around 73 MMT versus 94 MMT in 2011. Yields are averaging 1.85 MT/ha, down 20% on last year.

If you think that's bad then spare a thought for Romania. The Ministry there say that corn production could more than halve this year to just 4.7 MMT from 10.5 MMT last year.

With the European corn harvest still ongoing, analysts are scaling back their ideas on EU-27 output on an almost weekly basis at the moment. MDA CropCast cut their EU-27 corn production forecast by 2 MMT to 53.6 MMT yesterday, almost 11% down on last year's crop of 60.2 MMT.

And so, as one largely disappointing northern hemisphere harvest draws to a close, thoughts are already turning to the next. The FAO say that world wheat plantings for 2013 are at least expected to match those of this season, and that assuming a return to more normal weather conditions "could result in a significant increase in next year's global wheat output."