EU Wheat Closing Comments - Wednesday
The NFU pegged the UK wheat crop at just 13.25 MMT, the lowest since 2007 when plantings were 10% lower at 1.8 million hectares, giving a crop 13% down on last year. Yields were forecast at less than 6.7 MT/ha, the worst since 1988.
UK barley and rapeseed production was forecast more or less unchanged from last year at 5.44 MMT and 2.76 MMT respectively. In the case of OSR, yields were forecast up 5.9% on the five year average at 3.6 MT/ha, and slightly better than the HGCA's 3.5 MT/ha estimate.
FranceAgriMer tweaked their domestic supply and demand numbers, placing the French soft wheat crop at 36 MMT, up 1 MMT on last year. Exports were revised slightly higher from last month, and almost 1.5 MMT up on a year ago to 17.5 MMT. That takes 2012/13 ending stocks down from 2.28 MMT last season to 1.78 MMT this time round.
The French are clearly expecting a strong sales performance in the final three quarters of 2012/13, with Russia out of the way. Wheat exports in the first two months of the current marketing year are down 21% at 2.22 MMT.
Russia's Putin was said to be meeting with officials to discuss the situation on the national and international grain market again today.
French corn production was pegged 1 MMT down on last season at 15 MMT, with barley output up more than 30% to 11.5 MMT.
Ukraine's Ministry said that winter grains planting there is 81% complete, including wheat at 87% done.
Australia reported that it had exported 2.2 MMT of wheat in August (+59% year-on-year), taking the 2011/12 (Oct/Sep) marketing year total to a record 21.7 MMT with one month left to spare.
"Rains recently returned to western and northern Morocco, eastern Algeria, and Tunisia, which improved moisture supplies a bit. However, notable dryness continues in central and western Algeria. Wheat planting will begin in a few weeks, and rains need to return to the drier areas to improve moisture and prevent planting delays," said MDA CropCast.
Concerns are already developing for US winter wheat prospects with planting barely past the halfway point. "Rains in the south central Plains will improve moisture there for wheat as well, but significant dryness will continue in the west central Plains, namely NE, northern KS, and northern CO," MDA CropCast added.
