Nogger's Blog

16/11/12 -- Soycomplex: Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.83 1/4, down 18 3/4 cents; Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.68, down 16 cents; Dec 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD424.60, down USD5.90; Dec 12 Soybean Oil closed at 47.05, down 0.41 points. For the week overall Jan 13 beans were down 83 1/4 cents with Dec 12 meal lost USD25.10 and Dec 12 oil fell 65 points. Fund selling in beans was estimated at 4,000 contracts on the day. Today's commitment of traders report shows trend following funds reducing their net long in soybeans from 129,657 to 95,554 in the week through to Tuesday night. Trade estimates have them shedding a further 10-12,000 since then. Front month soybeans are now down 22% from the early September highs to 5-month lows. Adding pressure today were reports that China had cancelled around 600 TMT of soybeans purchased from the US. Weekly export sales from the USDA beat trade expectations of 250-500 TMT at a combined 585,200 MT. Weekly shipments were very strong again, surpassing even last week's two year high at 1.8 MMT. A return to wet weather in Argentina may see up to 20% of the intended corn acreage not get planted in time, according to local estimates. That may lead to an increase in soybean sowings.

Corn: Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.27, up 5 3/4 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.31, up 6 cents. For the week Dec 12 corn was 11 3/4 cents lower whilst Mar 13 fell 11 cents. Corn found support on news that the EPA wasn't going to change the US ethanol mandate. Weekly export sales of a combined 312,100 MT were in line with trade ideas of 200-400 TMT, although only 103,900 MT of that was for the 2012/2013 marketing year. Delays in Argentine corn plantings were supportive as was news of Taiwan becoming the latest nation to switch their corn buying away from Brazil due to port congestion causing shipping delays of up to two months there. In Argentina, Martell Crop Projections say that "November warmth and sunshine had allowed spring planting to make modest gains. By mid November, 45% of intended corn was sown but still way behind schedule. The updated forecast is wetter in Buenos Aires, now calling for 2-3 inches of rainfall (50-75 millimetres). The first wave of strong thunderstorms comes Sunday, a 70% risk in western Buenos Aires and La Pampa. A second chance for showers comes Wednesday."

Wheat: Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.38, down 7 1/2 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.76, down 10 1/2 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.09 3/4, down 10 1/2 cents. For the week as a whole Chicago wheat was down 48 1/2 cents, with Kansas falling 46 1/4 cents and Minneapolis down 40 3/4 cents. Chicago wheat settled at a four month low. Weekly export sales of 314,600 MT were uninspiring, although in line with trade estimates of 250-450 TMT. Sales need to average 550 TMT a week to hit the USDA's 2012/13 export projections. US wheat prices have got more competitive of late, but they need to start picking up more sales soon to come close to this USDA target. New crop prospects are far from ideal. "The US weather forecast indicates continuing drought in hard red winter wheat from a dominant ridge of high pressure. Not only is the near-term forecast dry, but also the 6-10 day forecast. This comes on the heels of a very dry October in the key bread wheat states," say Martell Crop Projections.