Nogger's Blog

15/11/12 -- Soycomplex: Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.02, down 17 cents; Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.84, down 14 3/4 cents; Dec 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD430.50, down USD5.50; Dec 12 Soybean Oil closed at 47.46, down 21 points. Funds continue to exit their soybean longs, selling an estimated 4,000 lots on the day and driving prices to levels not seen in almost 5 months. South American weather forecasts are less threatening, although a return to wetter weather again in Argentina isn't far away. "Showers are expected to increase across the region this weekend, which will maintain wetness concerns, especially in southwestern areas, where the heaviest rainfall is expected. Widespread rainfall is expected in the 6-10 day period, which should further increase wetness concerns across central and southern areas, potentially leading to some flooding," say MDA CropCast. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are in the region of 250-500 TMT. Shipments should be robust once again. Vessel listings suggest China will import 4.9 MMT of soybeans in November, up 22% from 4.0 MMT in October. MDA CropCast increased their US soybean production forecast to 75.44 MMT, although that's still well below the USDA's 80.9 MMT estimate.

Corn: Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.21 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.25, down 4 1/4 cents. Fund selling was estimated at around 3,000 contracts on the day. South American corn supplies are said to be tightening as supplies run down after months of aggressive sales. US ethanol production fell 3,000 barrels per day to 824,000 bpd, according to the Energy Dept, which is 10% down on year ago levels as more plants go into mothballs. That sees US ethanol stocks decline by 285,000 barrels to 17.85 million barrels, the lowest in almost a year. The trade is looking for weekly export sales of around 200-400 TMT tomorrow. Last week's sales were only 157,600 MT, well below the 422,000 MT/week needed to match USDA projected exports for 2012/13. Strategie Grains reported an EU-27 corn crop of 53.6 MMT, 15% down on output of 63.4 MMT a year ago. EU corn import requirements were raised from 10.9 MMT to 11.5 MMT.

Wheat: Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.45 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.86 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.20 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents. Taiwan bought 68,200 MT of US wheat for Dec/Jan shipment. Algeria was said to have bought up to 400 TMT of probably French wheat. Libya bought 30,000 MT of optional origin wheat for November shipment. Jordan bought wheat for January shipment. The EU has just had their best week on exports in more than two years, according to the volume of soft wheat export licences issued by Brussels. So there is clearly interest out there. Ukraine are now said to have more or less confirmed that a wheat export ban will be in place by the beginning of December. US winter wheat worries are mounting with MDA CropCast saying "extensive dryness will persist across the central and southwestern Plains, with the wheat crop expected to enter dormancy very poorly established." Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are in the region of 250-450 TMT.