Chicago Rallies Led By Wheat

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 08:52 | Categorized as

27/11/12 -- Soycomplex: Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.49 1/4, up 24 1/2 cents; Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.37 1/2, up 25 1/4 cents; Jan 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD433.40, up USD6.50; Jan 13 Soybean Oil closed at 50.41, up 83 points. Funds were given credit for being net buyers of around 4,000 soybean contracts on the day. Very strong recent soyoil sales have pushed 2012/13 existing commitments even higher than those for soybeans compared to the USDA's targets for the season. How will they manage to increase soyoil sales without also upping the domestic crush and thereby reducing 2012/13 ending stocks even further from the already tight 140 million bushels that they have pencilled in? As well as potentially increasing domestic soybean usage the USDA also have the problem that 74% of their export projection for soybeans for the entire season has already been met - with 79% of 2012/13 still remaining. Chinese demand hasn't tailed off as much as was touted towards the end of the year, encouraged no doubt by the recent sharp price dip. Imports will soon start to pick up again ahead of the Chinese New Year approaches in February. Sinograin estimated China’s ‘12/13 bean imports at 60.0 MMT

Corn: Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.60, up 12 3/4 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.64, up 12 3/4 cents. Funds were said to have been net buyers of around 10,000 corn contracts on the day, adding to their newly established length. Spillover strength for wheat added support for corn in late trade. Safras said that the Brazilian corn crop is 89% planted versus 94% a year ago. Excessive wetness in Argentina remains a concern with more rain in the forecast in the coming days. There's talk that this will delay the corn harvest there. Maizar estimated Argentina’s 2012/13 corn crop at 25-28 MMT. Michael Cordonnier yesterday said 22.5 MMT. The USDA currently come in at the high end of the range at 28 MMT. Ongoing concerns about barge traffic on the Mississippi River due to low water are keeping the cash market firm.

Wheat: Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.73, up 24 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD9.15 3/4, up 31 1/2 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.36 1/4, up 21 1/4 cents. Last night's worst ever crop condition ratings for US winter wheat heading into dormancy were supportive. The US Plains remain dry with no rain in the forecast for 6-10 days. Ukraine look like they will be out of the wheat export market by the end of the week, having shipped 5.4 MMT of the grain so far this season. Iran are said to have finalised a barter deal to take 1 MMT of wheat from Pakistan in exchange for iron ore and urea after agreeing on quality terms. Sudan bought 55 TMT of Australian wheat. Jordan, Syria and Algeria are also shopping for wheat. Japan are also in the market for 150 TMT of mostly US wheat in it's normal weekly tender.