Chicago Rebounds From Lows

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 08:57 | Categorized as

06/11/12 -- Soycomplex: Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD15.16 3/4, up 12 1/2 cents; Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.15 1/2, up 12 1/4 cents; Dec 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD467.30, up USD2.80; Dec 12 Soybean Oil closed at 48.68, up 36 points. Beans rebounded back from the USD15/bu level, with funds buying an estimated 4,000 soybean contracts on the day. A bearish slant for beans in Friday's upcoming USDA report may have already been factored in. Ahead of that Linn Group were the latest to issue their production estimates, pegging US soybean production at 2.930 billion bushels with yields at 38.7 bu/acre. The USDA's October estimate was 2.86 billion and yields of 37.8 bu/acre. The average trade guess for Friday is 2.892 billion and 38.2 bu/acre respectively. Celeres left their Brazilian soybean estimate unchanged at 79 MMT, which is 2 MMT less than the USDA. They say that only 27% of the crop has been planted so far against 48% this time a year ago. China will auction off another 400 TMT of soybeans on Thursday in an effort to contain domestic price rises.

Corn: Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.41, up 5 1/2 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.43, up 5 cents. Corn also staged a mini rebound, aided by funds coming on for a net 3,000 contracts on the day. An Indiana ethanol plant announced it was closing temporarily, the latest in a series of shutdowns due to poor margins. It will be interesting to see if the USDA make any alterations to demand from this sector in Friday's report. Exports too are running well behind schedule. The trade is looking for a corn crop of 10.629 billion bushels on Friday, with yields at 122.1 bu/acre versus 10.706 billion and 122 bu/acre last month. Linn Group estimated corn production at 10,478 million bushels with a yield of 122 bu/acre. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that the corn crop there is only 43% planted compared to 62% this time a year ago. Benson Quinn report "Cordonnier is said to have reduced his estimate for Argentine corn production down 3.5 MMT to 22.5 MMT." That would mean Argentina will not be having a record corn crop after all this year, production in 2010/11 was 25.5 MMT according to USDA estimates.

Wheat: Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.77, up 11 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD9.19 1/2, up 10 1/2 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.48, up 8 cents. Funds were said to have been net buyers of around 3,000 CBOT wheat contracts on the day. Jordan passed on a tender for 100 TMT of optional origin wheat for Feb/April shipment. India said it is to release a further 100 TMT of wheat from it's surplus stocks for sale in a tender. Ukraine said that 88.5% if winter grains there have emerged, far better than the 68% at this time a year ago. Crop conditions are also significantly improved versus 2011 at 91.2% good/fair versus only 62% last year at this time. Harvesting there is now 94% complete, with yields down from 3.58 MT/ha to 3.03 MT/ha. Trade estimates for Friday's US wheat ending stocks are 666 million bushels, versus the October estimate of 654 million and 743 million in 2011/12. World wheat ending stocks are seen 2 MMT lower than last month at 171 MT. US winter wheat conditions are the worst on record heading into dormancy, with little respite in the weather forecasts.