Nogger's Blog

21/11/12 -- Tomorrow is Thanksgiving Day in the US, the day when traditionally America stops to give thanks to the British for inventing them. They munch their way through 45 million roast turkeys (yes, that's what they reckon: 45 million of the buggers) and raise a glass to dear old Blighty.

The Chicago market is therefore closed tomorrow and Friday's daytime trade is a shortened 9.30am-12 noon local time, or 15.30-18.00 GMT and that's it then until Monday morning.

With America closed then, the market is likely to focus on Europe. Step forward the ongoing (how long has it been now? Three years plus?) Greece. The so-called troika have apparently failed to reach an agreement overnight to stump up the next EUR34 billion due in early December.

And so we stumble on. No doubt Greece will get the cash, just not yet. No doubt there will be new strings attached. No doubt Greece will accept the new strings, gobble up the cash, then ask for more cash in the New Year attached to longer pieces of string to pay back the cash that they've got in December that they can't afford to pay back. Again.

Ho hum. Tomorrow is a new day as they say. Indeed it is. Tomorrow and Friday bring us some new hurdles to jump in the form of the EU leaders' summit attempting to hammer out a new EUR1 trillion budget, with the air thick with testosterone and bullsh!t. Even "Call Me Dave" is talking hardball saying "If there isn't a deal that is good for Britain... then there won't be a deal." Knock 'em dead tiger.

Meanwhile of course we have the ongoing crisis in Gaza. Crude fell USD2.50/barrel yesterday when a ceasefire was announced, it's back up half a dollar or so this morning after what the BBC call "a night of heavy Israeli air strikes and sporadic Hamas rocket attacks."

With all this going on then it maybe isn't surprising that spec money is pulling out of the market with the US "fiscal cliff" also looming on the horizon and year-end approaching. Fundamentals it would seem, at least for now, have taken a back seat.

The overnight market sees beans 2-4 cents lower, with wheat down 2-3 and corn a cent or so easier. Paris wheat has opened around half a euro lower.

Have you noticed the new weather maps down the right-hand side of the blog homepage lately, courtesy of World Ag Weather? If we think it's been wet here in the UK, what about France, Spain and also Italy. That's why this Reuters video caught my eye this morning showing widespread flooding in the latter: Italy floods

Celeres say that 64% of the Brazilian soybean crop has been planted vs. 50% a week ago and 71% a year ago. They also say that 49% of the crop has been sold, unchanged from a week ago vs. 38% a year ago and 25% for the 5-year average.

Oil World say that in October China imported 110,000 MT of soybean oil from Argentina, 91,000 MT from Brazil and 76,000 MT from the US. A larger proportion of US origin soybean oil imports from the US are likely going forward as South American availability tightens, they add.