US Wheat Ratings At An All-Time Low

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 09:46 | Categorized as

26/11/12 -- Soycomplex: Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.24 3/4, up 6 cents; Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.12 1/4, up 9 1/4 cents; Jan 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD426.90, up USD3.50; Jan 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.58, up 26 points. Fund buying in beans was estimated at 2,000 contracts on the day. The USDA announced 20 TMT of US bean oil sold to unknown destinations for 2012/13 delivery - the latest in a sudden spike in such sales. Total net commitments are already running at around 83% of the USDA's target for the full 2012/13 season. Weekly export inspections for beans slowed to 45.5 million bushels from last week's 62 million, although that's still pretty respectable as this was for a holiday shortened week. Ag Rural said as of 25 Nov 77% of the Brazilian bean crop had been planted versus 86% a year ago. As of the same date 37% of the Argentine bean crop has been planted versus 47% a year ago, they added. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds liquidating 12,755 lots of soybean long positions in the week through to last Tuesday, cutting their net long down to just 82,779 lots.

Corn: Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.47 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.51 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents. Fund buying was estimated at around 4,000 corn contracts on the day. Somar said that some of the Brazilian corn crop has been hurt due to dry weather. Private analyst Michael Cordonnier reduced his estimate for the Brazilian corn crop by 1 MMT to 71 MMT. His estimate for Argentina was left unchanged at 22.5 MMT - although that's still well below the USDA's prediction of 28 MMT. The Ukraine corn harvest is said to be 93% complete or 18.9 MMT. ProAgro said that Ukraine has exported 4 MMT of corn so far this season, and that export restrictions on corn may be possible by April 2013. Weekly export inspections of 15.92 million bushels were an improvement on last week but fell well below the 23.8 million needed to meet the USDA's 2012/13 export target. The Commitment of Traders report shows funds sitting on a net corn long of 178,823 lots.

Wheat: Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.49, up 1 1/4 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.84 1/4, up 6 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.15, up 1 1/4 cents. Weekly export inspections were poor at 7.8 million bushels, placing year-to-date inspections at 446.5 million vs. 519.0 this time last year. After the close the USDA cut good/excellent winter wheat crop ratings by one percentage point to 33% - an all-time low for this time of year. The previous low for late November was 43% in 1999. Poor/very poor was increased two points to 26%. These are the last wheat crop ratings until the spring, so the market now has a long time to dwell on how US crops will come out of winter dormancy next year. In a flurry of international tenders Iraq are back in the market less than a week after booking 350 TMT of wheat. Jordan, Syria and Algeria are also said to be shopping for wheat. A partial victory for US wheat in one or two of those would support the market.