Nogger's Blog

10/12/12 -- Soycomplex: Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.74 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents; Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.75 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents; Jan 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD444.90, up USD2.00; Jan 12 Soybean Oil closed at 51.15, up 2 points. It was a relatively subdued session, with late strength tied to ideas that the USDA will further tighten US 2012/13 ending stocks in tomorrow's WASDE report. Weekly export inspections of 46.631 million bushels, whilst decent, were down compared to 51.943 million last week. Even so, exports are well ahead of schedule. A better weather outlook for Argentina, with drier weather forecast for the rest of the week, capped gains. Meanwhile rain in southern Brazil over the next 7 days is improving corn and bean growing conditions. Customs data shows China's November soybean imports were 4.16 MMT, down 27% vs Nov 2011. For the Jan/Nov 2012 calendar year so far total imports are now 52.49 MMT, up 11.4% vs 2011. December soybean imports are estimated at 5 MMT vs a previous estimate of 3.428 MMT. China imported 920,000 MT of edible oils in November, up 37% from a year ago. That brings Jan/Nov 2012 imports to 7.33 MMT, up 26% from a year ago. The key numbers to look out for in tomorrow's USDA report are US 2012/13 ending stocks, which are seen falling 10 million bushels to 130 million; World ending stocks which are forecast 600 TMT down on last month at 59.4 MMT; Brazilian soybean production which is expected little changed from last month's 81 MMT at 80.8 MMT; Argentine soybean production is likely to be unchanged at 55 MMT.

Corn: Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.26 3/4, down 6 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at 7.30, down 7 1/4 cents. Weekly export inspections of only 7.861 million bushels were even worse than last week's pretty poor 10.451 million. The slow pace of exports so far this season may lead the USDA to raise ending stocks in tomorrow's WASDE report. Marketing year-to-date exports are running around 50 percent behind last year's pace. Weekly exports need to average in excess of 24.5 million bushels/week to hit the USDA's projected target for 2012/13. South Korea's NOFI tendered for 210 TMT of South America, Indian, or EU origin corn for Jan–Apr shipment, specifically excluding US corn. South American weather developments are seen improving for corn, with more rains in Southern Brazil, and things turning a bit drier in Argentina. The key numbers to look out for in tomorrow's USDA report are US 2012/13 ending stocks, which are seen rising 16 million bushels to 663 million; World ending stocks are forecast to be broadly unchanged at 118 MMT; Brazilian corn production is expected to also be around unchanged at 70 MMT; Argentine corn production could fall around 2 MMT to 26 MMT.

Wheat: Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.32 3/4, down 11 1/2 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.90, down 6 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.10 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents. Weekly export inspections were so-so at 13.938 million bushels. Exports lag last season's pace by almost 14%. It is possible to make more of a case out for wheat exports picking up in the second half of the season than it is for corn. The USDA today announced Egypt bought 115 TMT tons of US wheat for 2012/13 delivery. Saudi Arabia bought 295 TMT of EU, US, and Australian wheat over the weekend. Argentina are reported to now be capping their wheat exports in 2012/13 at 4.5 MMT. Meanwhile US wheat is in bad shape heading into the winter. "Drought has intensified in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, with only 57% of normal rainfall since September 1. This has led to the worst hard red wheat conditions on record...Experts anticipate significant wheat losses. Drought and wind erosion may claim 25% of the planted area, well above average," say Martell Crop Projections. In tomorrow's WASDE report US wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are seen rising 14 million bushels to 718 million and world carryout is seen falling around 750 TMT to 173.4 MMT.