Nogger's Blog

12/12/12 -- Soycomplex: Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.73 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents; Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.70 1/2, down 3/4 cent; Dec 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD459.50, up USD4.50; Dec 12 Soybean Oil closed at 49.18, down 69 points. The dollar was lower, adding support. Tuesday's USDA WASDE report, which confirmed the acute tightness in US supplies this year, may in fact have been understated given the robust nature of soybean (and soymeal & oil) sales and exports so far this season. Tomorrow's weekly export sales report will therefore be of particular interest. Last week's soybean sales of 1.14 MMT were more than double trade estimates of 300-500 TMT and between 4-5 times larger than the volume required to hit the USDA's 2012/13 export target of 36.6 MMT. Trade estimates for tomorrow's soybean sales are 550-900,000 MT. Sales at the upper end of that scale would bring total commitments for the season to date to around 80% of that target little more than a quarter of the way into the season.

Corn: Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.21, down 3 1/4 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.25 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents. South Korea's NOFI bought 238 TMT of mostly South American corn for April/May delivery. Despite reports that US corn had been excluded, one cargo was said to have been traded as US/South African origin. Unlike for the soy products, corn sales are lagging the pace needed to hit the USDA 2012/13 export target. Last week's sales were a paltry 51,600 MT against expectations of 300-500 TMT. That brings net commitments for 2012/13 so far to only 42% of the USDA's target. Tomorrow the trade is looking for sales of 150–400 TMT, which in itself is a fairly modest amount for this time of year. Anything less than that would be another disappointment for corn bulls. China's CNGOIC says that the country's corn import needs will fall by more than half in 2012/13. The weekly ethanol grind fell 11,000 barrels/day to 824,000 bpd, although that is in line with the required pace to meet USDA projections for the current season.

Wheat: Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.94 3/4, down 11 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.53 1/4, down 15 1/2 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.90, down 6 3/4 cents. Wheat was the weakest leg for the third day running, pressured by the fall-out from Tuesday's bearish USDA report. Tomorrow's export sales will be interesting, as the trade keeps talking about world demand switching to the US, but with little hard evidence so far to back that assumption up. Last week's sales of 353,100 MT were in line with expectations, but hardly spectacular, and below the 511 TMT/week required to hit USDA targets. That target has now been lowered a little, but sales still need to average 500 TMT/week to get to the 29.5 MMT of sales forecast by the USDA in 2012/13, exactly halfway through the wheat marketing year. There are plenty of wheat tenders around, the US now needs to start winning a larger share of them than it has been. FranceAgriMer raised it's forecast for French wheat exports to non-EU destinations to 10 MMT, up 0.5 MMT from last month and a 1.5 MMT increase on last season.