Chicago Eases On More Fund Selling
27/12/12 -- Soycomplex: Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.18 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.14, down 4 1/2 cents; Jan 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD429.80, down USD1.50; Jan 13 Soybean Oil closed at 48.29, unchanged. Year end liquidation got the better of an attempt at consolidating Boxing Day losses, with funds net sellers of an estimated 2,000 soybean contracts on the day. Strong demand remains from China, despite last week's cancellations. The USDA reported fresh soybean sales of 115 TMT to China and 108 TMT to unknown destinations, both for 2012/13 shipment on Wednesday. The Ministry of Commerce estimate that they will now import 6.31 MMT of soybeans in December. Oil World pegged China's 2012/13 bean imports at 61.7 MMT versus 59.2 MMT in 2011/12. They also placed Chinese Oct12–Mar13 soybean imports from the US at 19.8 MMT versus 16.6 MMT in 2011/12. Imports from Brazil during the same period are seen falling to 2.2 MMT from 6.7 MMT in 2011/12. Similarly imports from Argentina are forecast to drop to 1.7 MMT from 4.3 MMT in 2011/12. Michael Cordonnier has cut his Argentine soybean crop estimate by 1 MMT to 54.0 MMT on continued wetness. He left his Brazilian soybean production forecast unchanged at 80 MMT. Estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are 400-600,000 MT.
Corn: Mar 13 Corn closed at USD6.91 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents; May 13 Corn closed at USD6.94 1/2, down 2 cents. As with beans an early attempt to rally failed as funds dumped a further 2,000 lots of their length onto the market. Michael Cordonnier forecast the Argentine corn crop at 22.5 MMT, unchanged from his previous estimate. MDA CropCast cut their projections by 2.1 MMT from last week to 23.1 MMT due to "acreage reductions and earlier significant wetness." Both estimates are well below the USDA's current forecast of 27.5 MMT. Cordonnier pegged Brazilian corn production unchanged from last time at 70.0 MMT, the same as the USDA, whilst MDA CropCast go for 70.8 MMT. Indonesia's Ag Ministry forecast corn production there in 2013 at 19.831 MMT versus 18.962 MMT this year. The weekly US ethanol grind numbers are out tomorrow, production last week was 822,000 barrels per day, around the volume required to hit USDA targets for the season. Estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are just 100-300 TMT.
Wheat: Mar 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.72 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents; Mar 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.23 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents; Mar 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.64 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents. Wheat futures also attempted and failed to maintain an early rally. India are said to be offering a further 150 TMT of their surplus wheat stocks for export. Bangladesh bought 50 TMT of optional origin wheat in a tender for Dec-Jan shipment. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 500-700 TMT. Last week's total was 671,100 MT, although seasonal factors could easily see this week's total fall on the low side of expectations. Nevertheless, the trade is expecting a better performance on the export front from US wheat once we get into the New Year. Reuters were reporting temperatures in northwest Kansas hard red winter wheat areas as low as single digits Fahrenheit (minus 12 to minus 17 Celsius) on Wednesday morning.
