Chicago Rises, Led By Soybeans
05/12/12 -- Soycomplex: Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.79 1/4, up 23 3/4 cents; Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.73 3/4, up 23 1/2 cents; Dec 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD453.20, up USD5.40; Dec 12 Soybean Oil closed at 50.66, up 92 points. Funds bought an estimated 7,000 soybean contracts on the day, spurred on by technical chart-related buying and more heavy rain in Argentina. China are also rumoured to have been buying US soybeans actively this week, which will make tomorrow's weekly export sales report interesting. Trade estimates for that are 300-500,000 MT. Also of interest will be weekly shipments, last week's total of 1.354 MMT was the ninth week in a row exports have been over 1 MMT, and that was in a holiday shortened week. "Showers are occurring across northern areas, which are slowing corn and soybean planting and wheat harvesting once again. Additional notable rains there over the next few days will maintain fieldwork delays and will continue to increase wetness problems as well. Showers should also slow fieldwork in southern areas over the next few days as well," say MDA CropCast
Corn: Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.53 1/4, up 6 3/4 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.57 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents. Funds were said to have been net buyers of around 6,000 corn contracts on the day, further increasing their net long. Increased wetness in Argentina continues to prevent the corn crop getting into the ground. Michael Cordonnier yesterday said that corn planting in Argentina only managed to advance from 51% to 53% complete during the past week, highlighting how slow progress has been. Estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for corn are 300-500,000 MT. We've had a string of disappointing weekly totals since the 2012/13 marketing year began, punctuated only by the occasional bumper week. Last week's 236,100 MT for the 2012/13 marketing year fell well short of the 426,000 MT/week needed to hit the USDA's projected total sales for 2012/13. The weekly ethanol grind came in at 835,000 barrels/day, which is slightly above 825,000 needed to hit the USDA's 2012/13 projections. South Korea bought 55 TMT of US or South American corn for January shipment. Low water in the Mississippi continued to disrupt barge traffic up river.
Wheat: Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.42 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.93, up 5 1/4 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.15, up 6 3/4 cents. Tomorrow's weekly export sales report for wheat is estimated to fall in the range of 300-500,000 MT. Last week's sales were only 279,300 MT. The trade will be looking for hard evidence that the much touted switch to the US for world wheat supplies has finally begun following this week's success in the Egyptian tender. StatsCanada upped the size of their wheat crop to 27.2 MMT. ABARES yesterday suggested that Australia will export almost as much wheat as it produces in 2012/13, suggesting that there is still competition about for US wheat on the international arena. UkrAgroConsult said the Ukraine exported 3.07 MMT of grain in November, including 1.32 MMT of wheat, 1.55 MMT of corn and 191 TMT of barley. There has been no official announcement that wheat exports out of Ukraine are over, but the trade believes that they are, although it is suggested that they may possibly re-emerge as a seller late in the season depending on how wheat crops emerge from the winter.
