Chicago Soya Dives On Chinese Cancellations
18/12/12 -- Soycomplex: Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.66, down 30 1/4 cents; Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.60 1/2, down 27 3/4 cents; Jan 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD444.90, down USD10.50; Jan 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.17, down 62 points. Beans capitulated sharply on profit-taking. For all the recent talk of China buying US soybeans under the counter, the USDA today announced Chinese soybean cancellations of 300 TMT along with "unknown" cancelling a further 120 TMT. Just to confuse the issue a bit more "unknown" also bought 110 TMT. All of this was for 2012/13 delivery. Funds dumped an estimated 8,000 soybean contracts on the day. Safras e Mercados said Brazilian soybean plantings are 98% complete versus 94% a week ago and 96% for the 5 year average. Celeres estimated the Brazilian soybean crop at 79.0 MMT, 2 MMT less than the USDA. AgRural yesterday said 82.2 MMT. Opinions on Argentina's production potential differ widely, with some estimates as low as 45-47 MMT and others as high as 55-57 MMT. Monsanto say that Paraguay could have a record 8.6 MMT soybean crop in 2012/13 if the weather remains co-operative. Informa Economics will release their US 2013 prospective planting estimates tomorrow.
Corn: Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.20, down 4 cents; May 13 Corn closed at USD7.23 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents. Fund selling was estimated at 4,000 contracts on the day. Michael Cordonnier estimated the Brazilian corn crop at 70 MMT, unchanged from his previous estimate and the same as the USDA. He pegged the Argentine crop at only 22.5 MMT, which is 5 MMT less than the USDA. He said 63% of the Argentine corn crop has been planted versus 57% a week ago and 73% on average at this time. Argetina looks wet again in this week's weather forecast, prompting ideas that not all the intended corn will get planted. Informa are out tomorrow with their latest US 2013 planting forecasts. Last month they had corn acres at 97.7 million. Copa Cogenca estimated the 2013 EU-27 corn crop at 62.2 MMT, which they say is only 1.4% up on this year's 61.3 MMT, although most other analysts have the 2012 EU-27 corn crop at around 55 MMT.
Wheat: Mar 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.11 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents; Mar 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.60 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents; Mar 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.01 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents. Wheat was lower in early trade but recovered by the end of the session on news that Egypt's GASC was back in the market, tendering for wheat for Feb 10-20 delivery. The US won a majority share in their last tender you may recall. The results of this tender should be known tomorrow. There's talk of Brazil wanting US wheat due to lower output and quality issues with their usual supplier - Argentina. Copa Cogenca see the 2013 EU-27 soft wheat crop at 127.7 MMT on improved yields. Russia’s December 1st grain stocks were said to be 29.7 MMT, down 30% from a year ago. Informa will release their 2013 US wheat area estimates tomorrow, last month had all wheat at 57.1 million acres.
