The Morning Vibe

23/01/13 -- After a completely manic start to 2013, there actually seems to be a bit of light at the end of the tunnel! Most of the various website projects on the go are finally just about complete and ready to launch I'm pleased to say. I may even have a bit more time on my hands to do a bit more blogging too for you, my dear deprived reader.

Yesterday's heat in the market seems to have evaporated rather quickly, with the overnight grains generally only showing very modest gains. I personally can't help thinking that the dryness concerns in South America are being over-hyped a little. It was, after all, not that long ago that Argentina was awash with flood water. Time will tell.

What is probably being under-hyped though are the rapidly decreasing US soybean stocks, which the market seems strangely quite relaxed about. Exactly how is this record Brazilian crop going to get where it needs to go in an efficient amd timely manner once the harvest is underway in earnest? (Where's Earnest, I hear you wonder). And who is going to be able to step in and fill the void when there's a 2-3 month wait to get loaded in Brazil and the Argentine dockers/farmers/truckers are on strike again with America sold out?

Oil World have estimated Argentina’s new soybean crop at 52.0 MMT, down 1 MMT from their previous estimate. They've increased Brazil from 81.0 MMT to 81.5 MMT.

China's ongoing demand for oilseeds may see them lift a ban on Australian canola imports that's been in place for the last three years within the next few months, report Reuters. China imported 2.93 MMT of rapeseed in 2012, up 132.1% on the previous year.

China's 2012 soybean imports meanwhile were 58.38 MMT, up 10.9% vs 2011. Imports from the US were 25.97 MMT, up 16.62%. Imports from Brazil came in at 23.89 MMT up 15.85%, whilst those from Argentina dropped 24.23% to 5.896 MMT. Even China's not keen on the Argies it would appear, and who can blame them?

China also imported a record 5.207 MMT of corn in 2012, and upped wheat imports by 195% to 3.689 MMT - the highest since 2004. Soybean oil imports meanwhile were up 59% to 1.826 MMT and palm oil imports rose 7% to 6.34 MMT. Have you spotted the trend yet? Didier Drogba imports were also sharply higher.

The Kazakh Ministry say that their 2013 wheat area will decline 2% on last year to 13.1 million hectares, although prospects for production this year are said to be favourable once the plentiful snow cover melts.

Russia sold 62,681 MT of wheat from it's intervention stocks last week, making the total sold since sales began to 1.384 MMT.

Michael Cordonnier estimated the 2013 US corn area at 98.5 million acres versus Informa's 99.3 million forecast of last week and 1.6 million up on last year. For soybeans he goes for 78.7 million, versus Informa's 78.8 million and 77.2 million in 2012. He pegs this year's US corn yield at 153 bpa and soybeans at 43.0 bpa versus 123.4 bpa and 39.6 bpa respectively in 2012.

He estimated the Brazilian soybean crop at 81.0 MMT, with output in Argentina at 53.0 MMT. Corn production was forecast at 70.0 MMT and 22.5 MMT respectively. All estimates are unchanged from last week. The Argie corn number remains well below that of the USDA (28 MMT).